1. redreversed
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    redreversed Active Member

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    How to create a plausible path to war

    Discussion in 'Setting Development' started by redreversed, Feb 16, 2014.

    I've been doing a lot of research on wars in the past 40 years or so as I need to find two countries in Europe that would most likely go to war with one another and why.

    I want it to be a slightly more interesting reason than either ethnic cleansing or imperialism. Ideologies wouldn't work either as europe seems to no longer disagree on them. Is there anything I should read up on or maybe a fiction book that could give me any ideas?

    I'd also prefer to stay away from Russia, North Korea, China... you know.
     
  2. Earthshine
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    Earthshine Member

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    Well, I won't pretend to be an expert on war and such things, but I'll try to give you a hand. Don't jump down my throat if they're silly ideas, though.

    Maybe rather than creating a completely fictional war, you could build upon existing tensions/conflicts in Europe. For instance, you could create a story based on the conflict in the Ukraine. I assume this story is going to be somewhat speculative fiction, so the storyline could start X years in the future after the conflict has devolved into a full-out civil war. You could even divide the country into a North/South or East/West dichotomy, with both sides fighting each other. And of course, various countries would come in to support each side, thereby exacerbating the conflict. But anyway, that's just an example.

    There are actually a few existing conflicts in Europe at present. There are also a number of recent conflicts which have been resolved, but I'm sure you could think of a way to make them flare up again. Just try Googling it.

    In terms of creating a totally fictional conflict...

    Greece could attack another country for economic reasons (I know Greece has somewhat recovered from their financial crisis, but I'm sure you could find a way to make their economy take a turn for the worse)

    You could have Ireland and the UK go to war - I'm sure it wouldn't take much to make old grudges flare up again

    Anyway, I hope I helped a little...
     
  3. DPVP
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    DPVP Active Member

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    A war in Europe now would probably be nationalistic or Economic.

    On the Nationalistic you have unification and Separation

    Unification. their are beliefs in some countries for a "greater" version. Greater Greece, United Macedonia, come to mind quickly but i am shore their are other movements like this. You could also have nationalist vs those that want a United States of Europe or some other more united EU.

    Separation. their are people that want their own state inside Europe, the Basque nationalism (ETA), Breton Nationalism (ARB) a whole mess of them in Russia, and many more all over Europe. If major fighting broke out its not unthinkable that other states would have an interest in the winner and try to swing it one way or another.

    Economic was discuses above. a lot of European countries are unhappy with Germany and that they had to bail them out.
     
  4. FrankieWuh
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    FrankieWuh Active Member

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    To quote Peter Pan and JM Barrie: "All of this happened before, and it will all happen again."

    The human race is naught but predictable and so are our wars. For my money, the path to the First World War is text-book stupidity and an ideal place to start for a fictional war, mainly because given the right conditions it could all happen again. When it comes to wars we don't learn lessons very well. However bleak that is for humanity, it makes it quite simple for a writer.

    Last year I finished a novella set 30 years from now about a politician trying to start a war with his neighbour by arranging the assassination of the visiting ambassador. The reason for wanting war was nothing more than the scrap for land, which, other than religion, is the main reason for most wars throughout history.
    One of my current projects develops this plot by turning it into a war for dwindling resources on an ever shrinking peninsular, with many puppets who think they are masters, learning too late that they themselves have been played. In both stories war begins from a significant event, an assassination or act of terror, using this as excuse to declare hostilities, not unlike the murder of Arch Duke Ferdinand in the First World War.

    In a more civilised world it's harder to come up with a plausible excuse to start wars - we've come a long way since the days of starting a conflict because one King looked at the other King's wife in a funny way.
     
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  5. stevesh
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    stevesh Banned Contributor

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    If you're looking for something offbeat, read The Mouse That Roared (Leonard Wibberley) for inspiration.
     
  6. Bryan Romer
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    Bryan Romer Contributing Member Contributor

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    There are serious cracks in the EU at the moment. If it falls apart, or some of the members try to break out, they or someone else taking advantage could quite feasibly start a war.
     
  7. Mikewritesfic
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    Mikewritesfic Senior Member

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    A major war in Europe would probably involve Russia to one degree or another. Most likely as the aggressor. Aside from this, there is always the Greek-Turkey scenario to try out.

    As far as fiction books, try Cauldron by Larry Bond. A very interesting and in some ways plausible scenario about a major war in Europe.

    I've kept the reply short but if you'd like to discuss your ideas more, please message me. I'm currently wrapping up my Ph.D in Politica and IR is one of my major concentration areas. I'd love to help out with ideas if possible.
     
  8. novemberjuliet
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    novemberjuliet Member

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    Playing with the divide between the EU and CIS countries sounds solid for a major conflict in europe, though I personall think people are very harsh on Russia these days. (The South Ossetia-Georgia conflict for instance)
     
  9. Lae
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    Lae Contributing Member Contributor

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    is this fantasy or?

    the political power hungry nations (UK, France, Germany etc)might be an option trying to seize as much power after/during the financial crisis, another avenue might be each nation getting a foothold in oil rich countries.

    A reopening of ENG vs SCO would be interesting. What with the independence vote and all.

    If you want to make it up entirely, then i always enjoy multinational corporations starting a good old kick off.
     
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  10. chicagoliz
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    chicagoliz Contributing Member Contributor

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    Global warming would provide some scenarios -- severe drought and heat could cause massive crop failure and water shortages in some areas. This could lead to climate refugees, perhaps from parts of Southern Europe to Northern Europe? Also you could add in refugees from parts of Africa who may be trying in ever increasing numbers to come to the EU, and maybe some oil-based issues. The Middle East and Islamic fundamentalism/residual hostility due to colonialism are some possibilities, although this of course gets much wider-ranging than a purely European conflict, if that's what you want.
     
  11. Auratus
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    Auratus Member

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    Give the world an Greater Depression. Let international commerce collapse, and you'll see serious war.
     
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  12. DPVP
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    DPVP Active Member

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    well you got Ukraine to look at
     
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  13. Auratus
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    Auratus Member

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    I hate to say this but... THIS.

    and there are many writing that talk about war, and fortunately (for writer), there are so many war happened in the course of human history. From some tribal quarrel to the World War II. You can find for them in the Internet or two-feet-thick history book in local library.
     
  14. Auratus
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    Auratus Member

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    or an Illuminati-esque corporation manage to control numbers of world's power and declare war to the rest of the world.

    Maybe read some of Tom Clancy's work could help. I just read his article on Wikipedia. He done some notable works which might help you find your way.
     
  15. Something Blue
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    Something Blue New Member

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    Maybe the EU becomes corrupt, and/or adopts some really left-wing or right-wing ideas, you know, something that split's people's opinions in half, or perhaps starts to become more like a dictatorship. You then have a war of pro-EU countires against anti-EU countries.
     
  16. Melanippe
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    Melanippe New Member

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    I'm not sure what sort of idea you are looking for.

    The large historic 'powers' of western Europe (France, Germany, etc.) are unlikely in this time to resort of combat unless something goes terribly wrong and there is a turn over in government. It is a mind-set hold over from the World Wars. It is in a very good book called "Where Have All The Soldiers Gone" that discusses why Europe in much less militaristic and nationalistic in the wake of World War Two.

    Eastern Europe, however, with the ethnic and nationalistic tensions, is much more likely to end up in a conflict. There are multiple competing ethic groups who aren't the fondest of each other. Doesn't have to be ethic cleansing, just a coming to head of a whole bunch of different issues and then the historical tensions kick in and presto! Fighting breaks out in the streets, politicians pour on the gasoline, treaties and alliances kick in and boom. World War Three.

    You don't have to use Russia, because I think you are predicting the future? Russia is currently in a very aggressive, imperialistic phase that will likely continue under Putin's leadership. Countries go through cycles of imperialism and isolationism. Russia is being imperial. America is heading in the direction of isolationism. You could have Putin somehow out of the picture and have that his successor is still consolidating power and is unwilling in military conflict until he is more firmly in control.

    If you did a government switch, you could possible incite the tensions of Germany and France over Alsace-Lorraine. Threatening the UK's ability to import food with a naval blockade would cause a whole lot of trouble, because hungry people vote for different politicians, and the powers-that-be do not want to lose power.

    Honestly, though? Your best bet is going to be the Balkins. Good luck with your story.
     
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  17. Tiradentes
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    Tiradentes Member

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    I can't believe how many people suggested Ukraine after the OP said that he did not want to involve Russia.

    One plausible scenario to me would be Cyprus trying to capture Northern Cyprus in the event of a Turkish withdrawal for whatever reason. Turkey might try pivot back to the island, but it would likely have the support of Greece, an EU member. Interestingly, both Greece and Turkey are members of NATO, and if they were to go to war with each other the rest of the alliance would find itself in a tricky position. Its paralysis would undermine faith in its ability to perform in future conflicts as well.

    This isn't entirely Europe, but another scenario would involve African refugees trying to cross into Ceuta and Mellila, two Spanish exclaves which border and are claimed by Morocco. Right now they are protected by high fences and fairly humane guards who aren't hard-pressed because the refugees travel in small groups, but a future Moroccan government, trying to change facts on the ground, could try to organize a "rush" on the walls. If the Spanish react with deadly force then Morocco would have a passable casus belli.
     
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  18. novemberjuliet
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    novemberjuliet Member

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    I read something about Argentinean commandos planning sabotage missions off of Spanish territory aimed at Gibraltar during the Falklands War. Maybe there could have been some sympathizers in the Spanish government and could slowly widen the conflict and bring it closer to the UK? A chance to poke a Thatcher is in there somewhere too lol.
     
  19. Carla Wynker
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    Carla Wynker Member

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    Are you planning to write fantasy? Anyway, if you WW2 type of war you've got Ukraine and Russia just before you. Some country would give his aid and soldiers to Ukraine, others would leans toward Russia. And in the end the scale of the countries involved may grow and create a huge war.
     
  20. Tiradentes
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    Tiradentes Member

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    Nothing OP said in his post implies fantasy in any way, although he did say that he wasn't interested in Russia. Did you read his post at all?
     
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  21. redreversed
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    redreversed Active Member

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    If anyone is curious, I ended up writing a conflict fairly similar to the conflicts in the balkans.

    Thanks for all the input, guys:)
     
  22. Tiradentes
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    Tiradentes Member

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    May we ask for some details about it?
     
  23. jannert
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    jannert Contributing Member Supporter Contributor

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    Scotland and England could go to war over who gets to keep the UK's Trident nuclear missiles in their back yard.
     
  24. Tyler Danann
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    Tyler Danann Active Member

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    Apart from the Ukraine and Russia then I'd say Serbia and Kosovo / Albania.

    I was there in 1999 and we were all talking about how there could be a war between the two peoples in the future...
     
  25. Madman
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    Madman Active Member

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    Just involve a woman and you are all set.
     

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