I'm writing my first book, what are the odds of it being successful?

Thanks for the input everyone.

In the end I have come to the conclusion that:

The writing topic is important. There must be a market for the topic your book is about. I'd have a higher chance at selling a vampire book than a book about typical life in North Dakota.

Is there even such a thing as better quality writing? Go Dog Go is a childrens book and has sold thousands of copies. It is a very juvenile and elementary book, but I would consider it a very good book. It is perfect for its target audience. Understanding your audience and adapting your writing style to your target will result in more sales. However, if you are not very passionate about what you are writing about or are not very knowledgeable on the subject it might show in your writing and may affect how engaged the reader gets. How does one define quality writing? Is it the total number of people that enjoyed your book? Is it the percent of people that enjoyed your book out of the number that read it? Is it the status of the people that read your book? I think the answer is up for debate.

 

Words like "quality" and "good" are subjective, just like the people at the publishing houses. Stephanie Meyer AND J.K. Rowling both got rejected by the first publishers they submitted their respective manuscripts to, as have many other world-renowned authors.

Expect rejections. Do not expect everyone to love your work. Write for those that do, that will. Don't give up just because the odds seem long. If you don't try, you'll never know.

And my two cents on the debate about "good" writing:

Writing is a craft. It is an art form. It is one of many mechanisms by which we, as humans, can convey a story. Therein lies a critical point: writing conveys a story. No matter how gifted a wordsmith you or anyone may be, they'll have a helluva time pushing a bad story. You can write up a lame story with the most amazing language in the world, but at the end of the day, it's still a bad story. Likewise, a good story will attract people even if the writing is subpar by most critics' standards.

The writing only needs to be "good enough" to support the story. Say what you want about Harry Potter and Twilight, but no one bought them because they heard that the writing in them was superb, and I doubt those books will be studied in comparative literature courses in years to come. People resonate with the world, characters, and stories woven by Rowling and Meyer though. That's why they bought the books. That's why they became so popular. That's why they have their own little cult followings.

I always have and always will consider myself a storyteller first and a writer second. I will continue to hone my craft and improve my stories, and when all is said and done, I think I'll be successful, just as I believe we all can be. Success should not be measured in dollars and cents, but if you have the talent to back up your ideas, there's no reason why you can't be the next hit author, or why you can't at least be able to make ends meet. Believe.

 

Is there such a thing as good writing?

Of course. Take Paolini for an example (Inheritance Cycle): in my opinion, he is not the greatest writer. His plot and storyline are what makes it happen. Same for Rowling (though I like her style, many think she is dry at times). Her world is what makes it happen.

The elements of a novel are like the soundtracks for movies. The music either makes it or breaks it, if you get me. In this case, it is not only the quality of the writing that effects the success and likability of a book. Good writing, I believe I have witnessed, is not included in every hit novel.

 

Excellent post.

 

Good writing is in the eye of the beholder. It's a shame most beholders like sparkly vampires.

 

Female beholders would be more correct.

 

Wow, well all those poets are screwed! Boy, I hope I didn't just offend the poet community. Sorry, poets.

Admittedly, I haven't read any replies to the original poster. I probably should, but tomorrow is my birthday and I'm not drunk yet. The idea that you cannot create perfection the first time you put your hand to paper is founded not just in the experience of many writers, but the jealousy in their mind as well. Sure, they have proof, often times first hand knowledge, that it is exceedingly hard and at times impossible to master such an art the first time you try it. Perhaps they are simply enraged they did not.

I love psychobabble. Whether it is true or not, I don't think it matters very much. What if every single person here told you that you have NO chance at making a best seller in your first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, etc, try... would you stop writing? If so then you might want to delve into why you are writing in the first place. If you haven't any desire to write simply for the activity of writing, then you won't succeed.

My advice: stop caring. Find our why you're really writing and seek the solace that it brings.

 

I think Bob Baker and his "The 7 Attributes of Highly Successful Authors" is what you are looking for. I totally agree with his first attribute about writing, quote:

"They're on a mission (or at least feel they have something to say). Many prominent authors write because they have to. What drives them goes far beyond money and recognition. They write and share their words because they have a story that needs to be told, a point of view that needs to be communicated, a message they feel the world needs to hear. To be successful, you must become an evangelist for your topic."

Reference:
http://www.bob-baker.com/qt/successful-authors.html

 

the sad truth is, nobody who knows anything about the literary world will write poetry hoping to make a living at it!

even poet laureates had/have 'day jobs' and didn't/don't live on the money they make from publishing just their poems...

 

it's a business. they are there to sell books. if you want a lot of people to read your books and make a nice living, give the people what they want. if you care more about pleasing yourself with your writing, then maybe writing for commercial purposes is not for you. keep your manuscript on your coffee table and admire the art you made.

 

I'd guess around 1/100,000.

Neal Shusterman was rejected twice before getting published.

Ray Bradbury was rejected so many times he stopped counting.

Mark Twain was rejected many times as well.

See a pattern here?

 

Yeah, expect at least 10 rejections until you strike.

 

My novel, Flank Hawk, was rejected by seven publishers before finding a home with the 8th. A full read was requested based upon the partial (cover letter, first three chapters and synopsis) twice, before the third time was a charm.

It took a little less than 32 months to find a publisher, from the first submission until the contract was signed, and that is short compared to the path and length of time it took many authors to find a home for their novel(s).

My SF novel has had a roughly 72 month path thus far, had has made it out of the slush pile a second time with a major publisher, and is sitting on the desk of a managing editor's desk. The odds are still against success with that publisher, but not zero, which they would be if I'd never stepped forward and submitted.

Just my two cents.

Terry

 

"Recipe for success" or even "well written" may actually be begging the question, given that such a recipe is apparently an exceptionally well-kept secret, and "well written" is always debatable. Even the word "interesting," alone, doesn't suggest or define publishability.

I don't think "topic vs. quality" is a fair depiction of key factors that relate directly to book sales. It is quality writing, though, that will dictate whether or not a novel manuscript makes it into print in the first place--at least through a royalty publisher.

Most novelists have to build up both confidence and reputation before "selling" a manuscript to an agent, let alone to a publisher who typically works with agented writers. Once a book is published and available to consumers, sales are a function of marketing, distribution, advertising and promotion, combined with author reputation and other incidentals like whether the story is screenplay material and maybe even whether the author photographs well or can benefit from a good publicist.

If you're looking at success defined by number of book sales from the vantagepoint of an unknown, unpublished author, it is most certainly writing quality that counts, not topic or genre. i.e., How well do you tell a good story? Every novel you find at the bookstore that you don't think is very well written probably rose out of a pool of thousands of manuscripts on similar topics or in the same genre that were comparatively, if not completely, unreadable, in addition to a handful or two of awfully good competitors. IOW, the poorest "quality" books on the shelves are likely to be much more than just a novel that "... has a catchy title, good cover art, and a grabbing couple of paragraphs on the back."

 

So you've waited 3 years to find a publisher for your SF novel? Wow. In 3 years you can write another 2-3 books and numerous short stories. But still, that time to find a publisher is just incredibly big...

Nevertheless, congratulations with your first book and good luck with the second one.

 

who's the publisher of flank hawk,terry?... i tried to find it on amazon, to no avail... is it still in print?

 

Mammamaia,

It is being published through Amazon.com and will be released October 27, 2009. It is not yet up for pre-release sale, yet.

There is a thread about it in the lounge area of the forum or by following the links in my signature file.

Terry

 

I doubt he waited that long. That's just how long it took.

 

Eddyz Aquila,

Yes, I did write short stories and articles and a second novel while the first novel was (and still is) out on submission.

When a story or novel gets rejected, I see if there were any comments from the editors, make any adjustments if I think the story needs any, and then submit it again to another market. While stories/novels are out being considered, I write news material to submit.

There are some authors that bank everything on a single novel, and then once it is submitted, watch their inbox (or mail box) for a reply, which can take weeks to months or more. I am not that way. I am not really as prolific in putting out stories and novels as many writers, but I work to keep forward progress going.

Terry

 

i believe as long as you bust your ass and perfect your creativity the sky is the limit. Keep yourself out of the box and anything is possible

 

The cover art is absolutely amazing! I'm just wondering, was the artist someone from the publishing house or someone you knew and you recommended to the publisher?

 

If I recall correct, on a whole, only five percent of novels submitted get published. Of course, there are a lot of crappy novels that get submitted. I'm not sure what the percent of good novels being rejected is.

If you have a great novel, if it is well edited, and if you submit it to enough places, it will get published. Well, most likely.

 

Yeah, so basically you have a 95% chance of failing. That's really encouraging for aspiring writers...

 

On the other hand if you put everything into it, thats a 5% chance of getting published. if it realy was on average a 5% chance id be mega happy, as their good odds (for those really trying).

Sadly, the real odd are lower than that.

 

One cannot but wonder and think - Are there really so many writers who completed a 300 page manuscript and sent it out?

Come to think of it, wow.