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  1. NigeTheHat
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    NigeTheHat Contributing Member Contributor

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    Independence for Scotland?

    Discussion in 'Debate Room' started by NigeTheHat, Sep 16, 2014.

    So, Brits - also non-Brits, if you like, though I have no idea how much attention this is getting outside the UK - we're about to maybe have significantly less of a country.

    I don't get to vote. If I did, I think I'd be inclined toward 'yes'.

    The SNP's numbers are all rubbish. Barely any expert thinks there's as much oil as they say there is, with the promises they've made they'd have to spend all the money twice (an investment fund and extra social spending are both excellent ideas, but you only get to pick one), and even if it turns out there's twice as much as Alex Salmond wants there to be, it's still a very short-term resource. There was a comment on Twitter: choosing to be independent on the basis of the oil is like buying a house on the basis that there's milk in the fridge.

    There probably won't be a currency union. Yes, Scotland can absolutely use the pound regardless. Pretending that's the same thing is at best deluded and at worst deceptive.

    So short-term, the economy will definitely be in a worse state than it would be if the country stayed attached to the UK.

    But.

    The country really needs a government that actually cares about it. That isn't just a problem for Scotland, it's a problem for everywhere outside a circle centred on London and stretching to Oxford. Most places won't have the option, but Scotland's big enough that it could make a go of it, albeit likely having a few unpleasant years in the interim. I think getting one would be worth it.

    So, I'm curious - if you're voting, what way are you voting and why are you doing it?

    If you did have a vote - and by this I mean the hypothetical you that lives in Scotland, not the 'clearly everyone in the UK should have a vote' crap that's infecting the BBC's HYS pages - same question.
     
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  2. jazzabel
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    jazzabel Contributing Member Contributor

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    I would disagree that Soctland wants independence 'on the basis of oil'. I'm pretty sure there are more relevant reasons. The oil seems to be more of the concern to those who'd be losing access to it, than the Scottish. And as for 'resources', what overwhelming natural resources does England have anyway? I'd vote for independence. If Ireland and Iceland managed, so will Scotland.
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2014
  3. NigeTheHat
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    NigeTheHat Contributing Member Contributor

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    Sorry, I should probably have been clearer about that part.

    'Assuming Scotland's economy would certainly be extremely successful because it has oil is worryingly short-term thinking.' I'd assume that's what the guy meant, though it's not really pithy enough to get many retweets.

    Possibly I'm being dumb, but I can't see a 'why' in your answer at the moment. Why do you think independence is better?
     
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  4. erebh
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    erebh Contributing Member Contributor

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    Scotland wants freedom from England - oil is good seed money.
    Scotland want their tax pounds spent in Scotland rather then blowing the crap out of whatever country gets in the way of America's war on peace via tag-along-Cameron.
    Scotland just wants out or oot!

    NB: I love the way the BBC "Neutral" programme featured an orange background the whole way through the show...
     
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  5. jazzabel
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    jazzabel Contributing Member Contributor

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    @NigeTheHat : ^This. Also, thanks for the clarification, I agree, that line of thinking would be unwise :) But what have they got to lose by becoming independent? It's not like UK hasn't been professing their undying love, begging them to stay, they's take them back in a blink :crazy: :rofl:
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2014
  6. Lemex
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    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    I'm half Scottish and proud of my Scottish blood. Scotland herself is only 40 or so miles up the road. I hope Scotland votes yes, but I don't think it will. I'm not sure why.
     
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  7. Link the Writer
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    Link the Writer Flipping Out For A Good Story. Contributor

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    I'm for Scotland's independence.

    My co-workers and I discussed this at length today while I was at my volunteer job. We basically concluded that if Scotland split from the UK, there would likely be a ripple effect felt all over Europe.

    One of my co-workers said that the Scandinavian countries viewed Scotland as a somewhat Nordic country, so if Scotland declared independence, then the Scandinavian countries would have Scotland's back. (Is he wrong, I'm not sure...) He did raise an interesting question: Would Scotland be allowed to join the EU if they become independent?
     
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  8. Lemex
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    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    I don't see why not. It would have to apply like every other country though.
     
  9. NigeTheHat
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    NigeTheHat Contributing Member Contributor

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    The most accurate way we currently have of predicting the future (Betfair Exchange, which I won't link to in case there are rules about that kind of thing) currently has Yes at 1 pays 4 and No at 7 pays 2, making 'No' a 3 to 1 favourite, or thereabouts. They've been wrong before, though.

    I don't know, actually. The 'Yes' camp, predictably, says of course they would. The 'No' camp, predictably, says it's not certain. I gather every new entry has to be ratified by every member state, which means places like Spain who have their own independence movements they'd rather see squashed would have to give the go-ahead.
     
  10. Lemex
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    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    I'm not sure I'd trust them to try to predict the future.
     
  11. Link the Writer
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    Link the Writer Flipping Out For A Good Story. Contributor

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    Whatever happens, I just hope things will turn out well for the Scottish. :)
     
  12. NigeTheHat
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    NigeTheHat Contributing Member Contributor

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    I would. No-one looks closer at what's about to happen than a large crowd of gamblers.
     
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  13. erebh
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    erebh Contributing Member Contributor

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    That's the weird bit - I can see why Scotland want to leave the UK but not sure why they want to join the Euro.
    The tiny country that Scotland is would not have a voice - Ireland have lost some of our voting rights for next year because of the inclusion of bigger countries so I can't really see what the Scots will get out of it.

    I love Osmond's response to Alex Salmon's favour of keeping the new currency in line with sterling -

    UK Chancellor, George Osborne, this week said that a vote for Scottish independence would mean the end of a unified currency. Speaking in Edinburgh, the chancellor said: "The pound isn't an asset to be divided up between two countries after a break-up like a CD collection. If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the UK pound."

    That was just after spitting his dummy (pacifier) out of his pram lol!
     
  14. Lemex
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    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    Well, they are more trustworthy than mystics I suppose.
     
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  15. Patra Felino
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    Patra Felino Active Member

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    I’d vote no.

    I broadly agree with the OP’s comments about the economic side of things. However, nowadays I feel that there is a real lack of appreciation for how screwed the “developed” countries are in general. Given how badly we’re handling this mock austerity (um, the debt has basically doubled since 2008), I just cannot see us getting through real austerity without going through some very painful adjustments. I see the economy as the priority at the moment and anything that makes it even weaker and more unstable is a no.

    Scotland does indeed really need a government that actually cares about it. Unfortunately, I’m not sure that Germany fits the bill! Hyperbole yes, but I doubt that Scotland is big, rich or driven enough to really make a fist of being truly independent, so I imagine they’ll just end up being tied to Europe instead of the UK. This fresh start the Yes campaign boasts of smacks of “It’s the first of January and this year’s going to be different!”, to me.

    When was the last century the UK wasn’t involved in a proper war (i.e. one in which we were genuinely at risk rather than just engaging in international bullying/policing)? They’ve stopped for good now, have they?

    Independence brings to mind images of conquistadors, the rape of Africa and Will Smith punching an alien. What we have here, on the other hand, is an agreement that was entered willingly by both parties and that preceded what has been the most successful period in the island’s history. It’s not like in Braveheart!

    And yes, betting exchanges are definitely the best way to get the odds for this type of thing. I remember the sinking feeling in 2008 when I looked at the prices and realised that Bush was probably going to get re-elected.
     
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  16. Ben414
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    Ben414 Contributing Member Contributor

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    Betting exchanges were never supposed to be, and should never be seen as the same as, the actual probabilities that those betting systems produce. I think those raw probabilities would be about as good of a prediction as we can get, but we don't know what they were; all we know is the betting exchange. The betting exchange is set up to make money for the betting site/company. If it is in their best financial interest to make the vote look more lop-sided than they actually determined it to be, they will. For example, they could be trying to reduce their financial risk in the bet by leveraging the chance that Scotland actually votes 'yes' with a larger number of votes for 'no' because of the perceived lob-sidedness.
     
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  17. Patra Felino
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    Patra Felino Active Member

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    I had considered that some leveraging or generally underhand antics might be taking place (in order to go the other way and take advantage of an inflated price, obviously!); 9.3 million pounds have been currently bet on Betfair, which is peanuts when set against the broader financial implications of the vote.

    But what's a better predictor? The media could (and in this instance, I think do) have biases of their own, and tend to present everything as on a knife-edge anyway, just to stir up excitement and interest.

    Opinion polls? Actually, my analysis there agrees with Betfair. Things are pretty even, exit poll-wise, but last-minute fears are likely to favour the No vote. On the other hand, there's still time for something unexpected to happen, which would favour the side currently losing. They might even show Braveheart on TV.

    And Betfair says...81% chance of No. Looks about right.

    OK, best get back to the main topic. We're already getting some nasty looks from people that don't like betting!
     
  18. Lewdog
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    Lewdog Come ova here and give me kisses! Supporter Contributor

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    I back whatever the people want. So many of us view Scotland as a country even though they really aren't. So why not actually become independent?
     
  19. Jack Asher
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    Jack Asher Wildly experimental Contributor

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    Is that "Yes, I would like to remain with England" or "Yes, I support succession"?

    Once again I think it's hilarious that some of us have any opinion at all about the subject.
     
  20. Lemex
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    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    I do find it hilarious that whenever there is a divisive issue like this, everyone suddenly becomes an expert. Suddenly you have 20 year old art students talking about economies as if they know a thing or two.
     
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  21. NigeTheHat
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    NigeTheHat Contributing Member Contributor

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    That's one reason I use Betfair as my Nostradamus-o-matic - the odds are crowdsourced, and Betfair take commission on the wins, so they're going to be somewhat closer to the actual probabilities than what you get from William Hill.

    "Yes, I support secession."

    You can have opinions based on what you know. Knowledge won't be complete, but it never will be with something like this. I've got opinions on tons of stuff I know bugger-all about - it's just a matter of making sure you change them if new information appears. Confusing opinions with facts is where it gets dodgy.
     
  22. Wreybies
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    Wreybies The Ops Pops Operations Manager Staff Contest Administrator Supporter Contributor

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    The vote is tomorrow, then, yes? Not knowing how logistics go over your side of the pond, when would the announcement of a result be expected?
     
  23. Lemex
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    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    Tomorrow night. These things are usually pretty speedy.

    It's going to be an interesting night!
     
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  24. Link the Writer
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    Link the Writer Flipping Out For A Good Story. Contributor

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    Looking forward to it, Lemex! :D
     
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  25. Jack Asher
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    Jack Asher Wildly experimental Contributor

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    Oh, don't even get me started on 20 somethings, they're the worst!
     
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