Go with the flow - if you can condense your plot into the length of a short story, that's great. If it sprawls out a bit, market it as a novella or novel. Don't limit yourself to a specific word count. My intention was to begin with a short story, then serialize it to create a saga. Then I got to the end, and realized all I had was a beginning and a middle. By the time I had it ready to publish, my short story was quite long, so I published it as a novel instead.
And no one wants it? There's a publisher out there for everyone, you just have to try enough. It seems to me nobody is taking that to heart anymore... But you're right about everything else.
Some more milk... "Would writing and publishing short stories make it more likely that my novel will be published?" = "Would entering a bunch of sprint races make it more likely that I'll win at the marathon?" And the answer to both is depends on your body type and general aptitude. I worked with a girl who was a competent rower...tried out for the British Olympic team. Got rejected because she was too short - at 6 foot. The suggestion was that, with her musculature, she might be better suited to the hammer throw. It's the same with writing. Some people are natural short-story writers, some are good at fantasy, some at historical fiction, etc. And some just haven't got a chance no matter what genre. There's probably the same chance of getting published as there is of making the national team, and that's once you find your specialist event!
I'm doing both simultaneously, to be honest - I find when I have writer's block on one project, switching to another for a few days, knocking out a short story (or even just worldbuilding for a future project) helps me to come back to the problem fresh. Naturally, the two require (and develop) different disciplines and skills, but what on earth is wrong with that?
Thanks to the discussion here I've started work polishing up and reworking 2 short stories. I've had a lot of fun with them and found that I've been more willing to tackle this issues in the stories more head-on. I want to finish them up and start submitting them because I feel they have some promise. Thanks for the replies and the inspiration and confidence they have brought me.