The Syrian Affair

Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by Dagolas, Sep 2, 2013.

  1. erebh

    erebh Banned Contributor

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    So the US Military - the self-promoted policemen of the world are now guns-for-hire mercenaries? Nice work Barack!

    How is all of this going to pan out. If Congress tomorrow votes for an attack, Assad will not sit on his hands, first things first is a strike at America's little brother Israel, they'll blow the crap out of Damascus before Hezbollah fire their 70,000 rockets already aimed at Tel-Aviv, and that's it - full scale war. The French will come in with the Brits who won't need Parliament's permission this time, Turkey will jump in feet first because we've already seen what an idiot Erdogan is, and millions of US boots will most definitely be on the ground. All of the US military bases in the Middle East will be lit up like Times Square firing left right and centre. There'll be nothing left of Syria or Palestine or even Israel and it's probably too early for Iran to do a lot but Putin will sit on his hands and the Chinese will be watching trade partners. And the whole time the Saudis and Qataries will be smiling contently watching CNN from afar.

    I hope I'm wrong.
     
  2. DPVP

    DPVP Active Member

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    Some days you have to miss the cold war

    the fact that we are looking at the Rebels as a monolithic block is a stupid way to do it.

    they can best be broken into three groups, the Free Syrian Army, the mujaheddin, and i would argue a Kurdish Factor that is not being talked about much. a picture to help understand i came across made by someone else.
    [​IMG]

    their are currently about 4000 reported Iranian Revolutionary guard members. Assad ( not hard to prononce) is a close ally of Iran witch is what brings Hezbollah into the conflict. the reality is this has some major potential as a proxy war without even putting boots on the ground.

    1.) we can take out some large elements of the Revolutionary guard sending a clear message to Iran.
    2.) getting rid of Assad would weaken Hezbollah's connection to support from Iran
    3.) we remove an ally of Russia and Iran
    4.) the FSA and Mujaheddin have a strained relationship, to the point they have fought each other and list threats against each other. if we strengthen the FSA it will make them more successful latter. Also the Mujaheddin are terrified that we will come after them. they are already frighten less then the FSA this should make them less efficient as they take cover expecting a drone
    5.) we get rid of another Ba'ath party ruler. if you are going for a score or something
    6.) taking out Assad might be a nice check against Putin. he almost seems to be cementing support with things like the anti gay law. this may be a sign of a new desire to do some military adventuring. not many people get to knock his plocies down a peg so a new Syria might offer a different kind of reset.



    it belongs somewhere and is worth mentioning, the Saudi's and Iranians hate each other. a weaker Iran helps the Saudi's, and the Saudi's are willing to go all Venezuela and pump cash to groups they like. this brings up the main issue. the new president of Iran may be more tolerable and might respond to carrots better. intervention in Syria could harden or humble him
     
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  3. GingerCoffee

    GingerCoffee Web Surfer Girl Contributor

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    What a mess. Thanks for the breakdown, DPVP.
     
  4. erebh

    erebh Banned Contributor

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    @DPVP Just wondering, if you're all for an attack on Syria and if so, besides pissing Putin and the Iranians off, why? And why bring Russia's anti-gay stance into this?
     
  5. DPVP

    DPVP Active Member

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    i think the Anti-Gay laws got a stronger reaction then expected but it still serves it purpose domestically.


    1.) it solidifies Putins support as Russians are generally anti gay, dispute being generally socialy liberal
    2.) it plays to his base that demonize sexual minorities, or at best tolerate them
    3.) it paints the west as a meddling and trying to tell Russians what to do, making Putin the supporter of a popular domestic law ( about 75% support it)
    4.) by making outsiders try to tell Russians what to do it appeals to peoples nationalistic sense, and Putin has nationalism covered.
    5.) it makes gay rights look like a western Trojan house, and the supporters of it ( generally Putin detractors) pro western

    putting it as pissing of is not really an accurate description. in the case of Iran it would be a major shift in power dynamics to remove their biggest ally. with the Kremlin it is certainly more nuanced. Putin has certainly been pulling out the Alpha role lately, and the loss of face over Syria could produce a opening for the next us president.

    As for a go or not go. i am a business man not a politician, i don't decide such things, i just try to know where the market is going.
     
  6. erebh

    erebh Banned Contributor

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    So no particular reason then? Like I said - to upset America's boogeymen.
     
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  7. DPVP

    DPVP Active Member

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    you can go for humanitarian, Geo politics, making a point about WMD, enforcing a red line, real politics, political posturing, sending a message to those that would use chemical weapons, or any of a number of reasons. does not make a big difference to me.

    now let me make a guess, that this is a little out of your league, if your seeing the implications as upsetting and pissing of boogeymen. at my end of the spectrum the market does not really care about the reason that policy makers go, publicly we all know it will be humanitarian and about the chemical weapons if the us does.
     
  8. GingerCoffee

    GingerCoffee Web Surfer Girl Contributor

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    I'm curious with some of the rebels publicly asking for the US to help them with military intervention that the news we keep hearing in the US is only about the half of the Middle East population that threatens to bomb our embassies if we intervene. Are there no Arabs/Persians on the side of the rebels?

    I have to admit my head is spinning here when it comes to sorting the two sides out.
     
  9. DPVP

    DPVP Active Member

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    Persians
    at lest the government, is backing the Assad government, they have sent Revolutionary Guard and material support.
    Arabs
    Saudi Arabia and Qatar are both supporting rebel groups materially.
    Hezbollah is a political party in Lebanon, that supports Assad and has their military wing fighting in the country.
    Iraq has financially helped the Assad government, and allows Iranian supplies to pass trough the country. however they did stop a plane with a shipment of North Korean weapons to Syria. their are groups form Iraq fighting with both the rebels and the government.
    Jordan is supportive of the rebels and allows the training of FSA forces inside their country.
    Arab fighters from a multitude of countries have been found and reported fighting in different groups. Yemminese have been found on both sides. granted
    Turks
    the government of Turkey is supporting the FSA giving support, shelter and training in country.
    Kurds
    Kurdish forces are mainly fighting for themselves trying to gain control of their areas in the north. they are in alliances with FSA groups and have been fighting some of the mujaheddin forces. however their are some kurds found in some mujaheddin forces

    the truth is the fighting on the ground has gotten foreign fighters form all over the world, east and west. saying how any group feels beyond their spacific governments positions is very hard to do.
     
  10. BritInFrance

    BritInFrance Active Member

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  11. erebh

    erebh Banned Contributor

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    @DPVP Yeah you're right - it's all way out of my league.
    There really should be a symbol for sarcasm, would you know who do I write to about new punctuation points? By the way, your and you're are not so subtly different.

    @GingerCoffee The way I am seeing it is the Arabs (Saudis and Jordanians in particular have been funding and arming the so-called rebels from the start), didn't John Kerry just state that a US strike will not cost the US taxpayer a cent, that the Arabs would fund it?
     
  12. GingerCoffee

    GingerCoffee Web Surfer Girl Contributor

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  13. erebh

    erebh Banned Contributor

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    Not a bad suggestion and it looks like the US, UK and France will have no reason to invade if he hands over whatever chemicals are in his arsenal.

    Could be a win/win for Assad - do you think the Saudis would be happy if the world has nothing on him?
     
  14. JJ_Maxx

    JJ_Maxx Banned

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    Sure...

    Syria: Here's all my weapons, you may take them!
    US: What about those weapons over there behind that curtain?
    Syria: What weapons, no these are all the weapons we have! Trust us!

    Just one more excuse Obama can use to avoid his own empty threats and blame someone else.
     
  15. Lemex

    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    The guy has used unmanned drones to bomb parts of Pakistan. I am not sure I'd call any of Obama's threats empty, exactly.

    I was gladdened when I heard this. I really really hope this conflict isn't expanded beyond the boarders of Syria. Bad enough it's happening there.
     
  16. Steerpike

    Steerpike Felis amatus Contributor

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    Same here.

    I think the question coming out of this will be how much political capital Obama loses domestically, since this has been handled in such a slipshod fashion, and for how long. He doesn't have to be re-elected again, but there is little chance of the Democrats regaining the entire Congress next year, and the GOP is going to take advantage of any political setback they can to try to counter him. Obama's poll numbers have taken a hit, and that doesn't help when you're trying to force the opposition to work with you. I'm not sure how long it will last, but it seems like a lot of his supporters have become disillusioned to a degree, though they still support him over the alternatives.
     
  17. Lemex

    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    I know a few Americans from outside of this forum (some even came to the UK to study and I got to know them then) and I've actually noticed this, especally since the NSA palaver. They still support him, but their conviction has definitely been shaken.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2013
  18. Steerpike

    Steerpike Felis amatus Contributor

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    The situation hasn't been well-handled, unfortunately, but I'm glad he ultimately decided to let it go to Congress and that it looks like there might at least be a chance at a resolution (though the devil will be in the details, as always).

    It's pretty standard in the U.S. that the die-hards on either side will criticize the other for anything and everything, and defend their own at all costs. So there are some in Congress for whom it won't matter what Obama does, they'll just oppose it (as many on the left did when Bush was in office before Obama, and it was just as bad then). I think his support among the middle, particularly going into mid-terms or even the next Presidential race, where he can impact his party, is important for trying to push Congress one way or another. That seems to have been hurt here. The party die-hards will drink the Kool-Aid and nod their heads no matter what, but people who actually think seem to have lost some faith in the admin, whether those people are Independents or Democrats.
     
  19. GingerCoffee

    GingerCoffee Web Surfer Girl Contributor

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    If I had to choose between the premature claims on how this was handled and the well orchestrated act of taking the country to war on false pretenses we got with Bush, give me the blunder.

    So far, I see a poorly handled PR aspect, but we don't know the final outcome of the decisions yet. Here's another way to look at the situation. If Obama had done nothing, you'd have heard the same screams both on the right and in the press that Obama was weak, wasn't acting, yadda, yadda, yadda. If he had simply sent the missiles, you'd have heard the same screams from the right, ignoring completely the hypocrisy, and in the press that Obama is taking us into another war, yadda, yadda, yadda.

    That leaves the option Obama took, act but make the country and the Congress buy a share.

    Now what do we have? If it was all about the public's position, and the Congress' votes, we'd have nothing. Assad would be uninhibited. Iran would be emboldened. N Korea would be asking for more money, and the dozens of factions fighting in the Middle East would have a propaganda coup, Allah beats the Great Satan. That is the level a lot of the men fighting operate on, indoctrination and ignorance.

    But Obama has continued to hold the, I can do it anyway card. And Russia and Assad cannot rest easily based on the world sentiment and the Congressional vote. It would seem the threat of an attack may not be as weak as it looks.

    Now the press is selling the commodity of scandal once again, because that's what they do. No accountability if Assad and Russia deal with the chemicals, and it's stopping Assad but wait, we didn't punish him. If Obama sends in the missiles, there would be a different equally scandalous news account.

    Don't get me wrong, I want the news media to police the government. And the press should be free to do so. But I lose trust in the news accounts when I see that selling the news commodity is the business model, not providing excellent investigative reporting which used to be the model.

    With the news filter over our information in mind, I'm unable to say for certain what is going on. I don't believe at least one of the narratives, that is the one that claims Obama has no plan. That narrative seems based not on the facts, but on disappointed, not-in-power, talking heads, especially the Hawks. The news media hasn't based this on investigative reporting, they've based it on echoing the talking heads and Obama's not having articulated his plans/strategy.

    I remain in wait and see mode.
     
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  20. erebh

    erebh Banned Contributor

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    I wonder what Britain's return policy is on chemical weapons. I hope Assad kept the receipt or at least still has the box!

    On a serious note though:

    In the 90s the IRA declared a ceasefire - the one still in tact. Bill Clinton's admin oversaw the whole thing including the decommissioning of all of the IRA's weapons on the terms of all sides but not even a photograph was ever taken. To this day there have been tiny splinter groups who have procured guns but none of those originally belonged to the IRA. With Britain originally selling chemicals to Syria, the 'Western opposition' have a good idea of how much of what exactly he has so it shouldn't be too difficult to oversee it's destruction or burial etc.
     
  21. Dante Dases

    Dante Dases Contributor Contributor

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    I can't be alone in seeing parallels between the Balkans in the early part of the twentieth century and the modern-day Middle East. Both were and are racial and religious powder-kegs that possibly hold the key to the world's future. My personal hope is that the global powers take a step back and let things run their course, only providing humanitarian aid. It may sound cold, but it might defuse the situation a little and prevent a much bigger conflict from arising. The Balkan crises of the twentieth century sparked two World Wars, a dozen dictatorships, numerous local wars and a couple of genocides; maybe non-intervention will avoid the greater evils of that list.

    Of course, this won't happen. Someone will do something stupid, foreign intervention will happen and the world will find its attention fixed on a universal military problem which will take decades to solve itself. Or maybe that's me being a pessimist.
     
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  22. Macaberz

    Macaberz Pay it forward Contributor

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    I hope you aren't right, but I fear that you might be. The fact that we are even considering these possibilities goes to show just how big of a mess this Syrian Affair really is.

    It tells us another thing too, it's a complicated problem and no matter what solution will be put forward, it too will be complicated and not without flaws.
     
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  23. DPVP

    DPVP Active Member

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    hey got out of work early so i read the tread.

    @erebh The Saudi's are already in the game with lethal equipment. for them their biggest rivle is across the gulf form them. removing Irans ally would be a boost to them. they are acting a lot more like Venezuela now with their oil wealth ( Venezuela in the mean time backs Assad)

    secondly pattasiam and sodium fluoride are components in making nerve gas. you dont pull them out and magically have nerve gasses like Siran and VX. this engineering capability ( their program is estimated to date to the 80's) means that they could or have gotten the chemicals form else where too. then their is the concern of mustered gas and blistering agent weapons. looking at the UK shipments and attempting to calculate a number of pounds produced would not give an accurate estimate.

    its a good idea but with an estimated 1000 tones of chemical weapons and the third largest program in the world, it will take more then looking at orders form a few months ago to find it all.
     
  24. erebh

    erebh Banned Contributor

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    @DPVP dude spelling - this is a writer's forum....
     
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  25. DPVP

    DPVP Active Member

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    Dude 14 hour days. Now any real comments?
     

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