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  1. plothog
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    plothog Contributing Member Supporter Contributor

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    Uk referendum - Leave or Remain in the EU

    Discussion in 'Debate Room' started by plothog, Jun 7, 2016.

    So we've got this referendum coming soon, in which we get to decide if the United Kingdom should stay in the European Union or not.

    It seems to be an important thing to vote on. It could make a substantial difference to the long term future of our country. - and unlike a general election we probably won't get a chance to change our minds in four years time.

    The problem is, that the politicians on both sides of the argument, seem to be making very bold over the top statements about how things will turn out, and I end up trusting neither side.

    I am starting to come to lean to one of the options, though I'm not entirely decided. I'd be interested to hear what other people here thought.
     
  2. Shadowfax
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    Shadowfax Contributing Member Contributor

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    I've signed up to do this course...

    https://www.futurelearn.com/courses/eu-referendum/1/welcome

    OK, it starts on 13th June and runs for 3 weeks, so technically tells me what to think a couple of weeks after I have to make up my mind, but you can rush ahead on the course, and that's what I'm going to do.
     
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  3. Raven484
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    Raven484 Contributing Member

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    Just checked out some of the pro's of leaving the EU.
    1) Save over 8.5 billion in membership fees every year. Could be great for schools and social programs.
    2) UK will be able to make its own trade agreements. Probably will struggle at first, but once it gets going you will have way more trade partners than you have now.
    3) France warns of consequences. Of course they do, they will be losing control of your country.
    4) Your economy could reinvent itself to the likes of Singapore's supercharged economy model. That can't hurt for the future.
    5) Your people more than likely will see a rise in wages. Paying people what they deserve is never a bad idea.
    6) The UK can re-establish itself as a truly independent nation with connections to the rest of the world. God forbid the UK becomes more respectable.
    7) Better security from terrorist attacks. Immigration will slow and make your country a little safer by just not letting in anyone. You will be able to pick and chose who will make your country better and safer.

    As an American, I look at it this way. Obama is afraid of it so it must be a good idea. Plus, during the first Gulf war, Afghanistan, and the Iraq war the UK game the most support to the US. If the EU was so fair and united, why didn't they all send the same amount of support.
    I say go with your freedom. The UK was once one of the most powerful nations on earth. You survived before the EU, and will thrive after again.
    Just my thoughts. Good luck with your decision.
     
  4. Raven484
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    Raven484 Contributing Member

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    Sorry, meant to say "gave the most support" in the last paragraph above. Damn Grammar!
     
  5. Shadowfax
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    Shadowfax Contributing Member Contributor

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    Because the rest of Europe didn't get conned by Blair with his sexed up documents proving WMDs.
     
  6. Tenderiser
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    Tenderiser Not a man Contest Administrator Supporter Contributor

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    If we leave the EU we'll have to renegotiate a trade agreement with them. The free movement of people will be non-negotiable, as well as us abiding by EU law. We'll end up with exactly the same 'restrictions' but without any say at all in voting or shaping the EU from within.

    More than half our immigration is from outside of the EU, and more than 80% of EU immigrants are in paid employment. A good proportion of the rest are children. But as above, even if immigration really was the bad thing that racists and ignoramuses would have us believe, we would still have to accept the free movement of people from the EU.

    Every respectable economist or economic body agrees our economy will suffer if we leave. All they disagree on is how much worse it'll be.

    Katie Hopkins is voting leave.

    These are my strongest reasons for voting remain but I genuinely haven't seen a single leave argument that makes an iota of sense. Every single point on @Raven484's list is inaccurate or irrelevant, but so is everything I've seen on every leave list...
     
  7. halisme
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    halisme Contributing Member Contributor

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    We weren't conned. The UK still owes the US some debt from WW2 (we were charged for D Day) and if we said no there was a good chance the stated could just say, "give us the money back now".

    Anyway we should stay. 90% of our economy is based on trade, and having to renegotiate all of those deals will deal a lot of damage.
     
  8. Wayjor Frippery
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    Wayjor Frippery Contributing Member

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    I've met the chap whose PhD was plagiarized to create those sexed up documents (an Iraqi-American who now lectures at a prominent business school). He was a very nice bloke with some interesting opinions and a remarkable sense of forbearance in the face of the UK government's theft of his work.

    For what it's worth, I will be voting to remain on principle. The initial idea behind the EU was to maintain peace in Europe after two devastating world wars. It was a good idea then and I believe it's a good idea now.

    There's a great deal wrong with the EU, but I'd rather see the UK working to improve it from within than whinging about it from without.
     
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  9. Raven484
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    Raven484 Contributing Member

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    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32793642

    The list I posted above was taken from this BBC article above. There is more to it. It gives both sides. I just read it and sided with leaving. Just the new trade agreements you will make with China and other non EU countries will pay for it.
    Germany does over 75 billion in trade with China today. Why can't England get a piece of it? The regulations the EU puts on everyone slows growth.
    The EU just seems to me to be another corporation trying to control everything. What good is contributing all those billions so other countries can get good internet access. That's great helping out other countries, but what do they do for you. From further research, it seems that the UK is pretty much ignored in the decision making. Plus US pressures on Germany and France pretty much act as an outside control factor to the whole union.
    I thought UK would definitely want to get away from anything the US has its imprint on.
    http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20160224/1035278337/us-runs-eu.html
    Interesting read above on how US influences decisions for some of the EU policies.
     
  10. Tenderiser
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    Tenderiser Not a man Contest Administrator Supporter Contributor

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    Raven, we will need a new trade agreement with the EU. We just cannot ignore them and trade only with China and non-EU countries. The only way we'll get a trade agreement with the EU, as a non-member, would be by accepting the free movement of people and EU regulations.

    I repeat: we will have all the same 'restrictions' without any decision making power at all.
     
  11. Wayjor Frippery
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    Wayjor Frippery Contributing Member

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    Agreed. Look at Norway.
     
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  12. KaTrian
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    KaTrian A foolish little beast. Staff Supporter Contributor

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    If I was British, this alone would convince me to vote stay. :ohno:
     
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  13. plothog
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    plothog Contributing Member Supporter Contributor

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    We're set up to be an EU country at the moment, so I can see why the economic experts are saying the economy will take a hit. In the short term, leaving the EU will cause us economic problems while we sort out new trade deals. And when I say short term - that's a short term that sounds like it'll last five to ten years.
    That's a strong point in favour of voting remain.

    The long term is less clear. Maybe we're tying ourselves too closely to a bunch of economies that we don't want too. Some of them seem rather fragile. We've seen how bad things got with the financial crisis in Greece, which is something which would be far worse if it happened to a bigger economy like Italy or Spain.
    The economies which seem to be growing the fastest right now, would seem to be in Asia rather than Europe.
    At least we aren't in the Euro, but if we're trapped with having most our trade via Europe, and the Eurozone collapses, that's bad for us.

    The problem is when we're talking about the long term, it's really hard to predict what is actually going to happen. I can envisage situations for either referendum result, where we really come to regret how we've voted.
    So I'm tending towards voting remain, because in the short term it makes sense, and in the long term I can't tell.
     
  14. Shadowfax
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    Shadowfax Contributing Member Contributor

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    I'm voting for Katie Hopkins to leave.
     
  15. obsidian_cicatrix
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    obsidian_cicatrix I ink, therefore I am. Contributor

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    *raises hand*

    Seconded.
     
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  16. Raven484
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    Raven484 Contributing Member

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    From what I have been reading, it seems the UK's main reason for leaving is that they do not have a say and are being ignored. So this is happening now anyway. Why not save the money.
    It also states that the UK trades about 50% of their goods now to the EU. The EU is not just going to let this go away. They need those goods also. The UK would have a nice bargaining chip when a new trade agreement with the EU is reached. The key to this is you do not have to bend if you do not want to accept the deal, don't. If they need your goods, they will bend also. The US trades with EU countries, its take it or leave it.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/670717/Norway-perfect-example-outside-EU-better

    The above is an article about Norway and why its better not to be in the EU. Looking at Norway, they are the 5th richest country in the world per capita. What is wrong with that. The average person working in Norway makes 42,000 a year, more than twice as much as someone in the UK. How is that bad?

    The EU is the same thing as NAFTA in American eyes. A way for corporations to bring in cheaper labor to drive down wages to make everyone suffer. Why doesn't the EU require all jobs to pay the same throughout the Union? It's the same here. The Obama administration is against the UK from leaving because it sees the hand writing on the wall of NAFTA being repealed.

    Norway is still part of the EEA, they are thriving from it even with abiding by the EEA laws. They are better off then before, they did not collapse. Everything the EU and the UK said would happen, didn't. Norway is still trading with the EU, but is thriving with it's other trade agreements.

    The UK has been part of the EU since 1975, of course the younger generations are going to be afraid. The EU is what most of you grew up with. But your older generations are trying to tell you how much the EU has stagnated the UK, why don't you give them the benefit of the doubt.
    We here in America have been living with NAFTA since the 90"s and we are ready to throw that out the door now. No matter who is president, it is going to change.
     
  17. Tenderiser
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    Tenderiser Not a man Contest Administrator Supporter Contributor

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    We WILL have to bend to accept a deal. A deal WILL include the free movement of people and following EU regulations. There is no doubt about that at all.

    We cannot look at Norway and say how much better they would likely be doing if they hadn't left the EU, because there is no data. That point is moot.

    The UK economy has grown vastly since joining the EU. Again, we can't say what would've happened if we didn't, but since it would either mean 50% less trade or exactly the same regulations and immigration but without a say... we can be pretty sure we'd be worse off.

    Why don't I give the leave campaigners "the benefit of the doubt"? Because they talk absolute bullshit and have no facts on their side.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2016
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  18. Dante Dases
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    Dante Dases Contributing Member Contributor

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    We do have a say. We have 73 MEPs (the third highest number in the EU). We have an EU commissioner. We alone have tried to renegotiate a settlement whereby we get a rebate from the EU from our money paid into EU coffers. Ourselves and Denmark alone are exempt from the Eurozone, again as a result of renegotiation. If we had no say, we'd undoubtedly have the same terms as everyone else - we'd be a member of the Euro, we'd be paying more money in, and we'd be getting less out.

    What does the EU do? In short, it has brought about the longest period of peace and prosperity in European history. Political stability in Europe is a reality, in part as a result of the EU. In addition, economic growth and social development has been put on a consensus footing and allowed European economies to grow within a social democratic framework which balances employer, employee, state and private citizen. From the EU we have workers rights, maternity rights, working time legislation, health and safety legislation, increased trade within low tariffs, freedom of movement within the EU for EU citizens (which allows business to grow and develop as well as allow for ease of nipping off to the south of Spain for a 10-day break) and a counterbalance for political extremism. In addition to this, the UK has its biggest export market, and one which it would be foolish to stop working with. It's been through hard work in the European parliament that TTIP is effectively dead in the water, meaning that major international organisations won't effectively be above and beyond national law.

    Is the EU perfect? God no. It needs reform, and some of its principles need overhauling. Freedom of movement is a fine idea, but politically and economically problematic. I'm personally in favour of keeping it, but some renegotiation across the continent needs to happen as much to appease extremists as anything else. The EU commission needs more accountability. Often the bureaucracy goes too far and puts 'red tape' in the way of development. These are hardly crippling issues.

    The EU does not stop us from signing trade agreements with other countries. Far from it. We signed a deal with China last year which will probably have a big impact on exports (or, at least, it will if Gideon isn't a complete economic illiterate) as well as imports. It makes sense to have multiple markets. That we don't really have multiple export markets is our own fault, not the EU's.

    In short, I'm going to say something I don't say often: I agree with David Cameron. We are better off inside the EU for a range of reasons, the biggest of which, on a personal level, are workers rights. Without EU protection it would be possible for a government to ride roughshod over the rights of workers to decent holiday, statutory sick pay, maternity leave, etc. That's my own biggest reason for voting in. I genuinely think it would be an act of supreme stupidity if we voted to come out.
     
  19. Raven484
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    Raven484 Contributing Member

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    I just listed the pro's for leaving from articles that were written in the UK. Not the NYtimes, but UK media. I also read the cons for leaving and formed an opinion. Obviously other's in the UK agree with the Pro's for leaving, isn't that why you are voting on this. I am sure that it is just not 5 people in your government want to leave. I could be wrong, but your vote will show it. If its 99% for staying and 1% for leaving, I will say you are right.
    If I am talking rubbish, blame your media, that is where most people get their information. I have posted a couple links on how I came to my opinion. Where is your links telling me they are rubbish. Are you saying the BBC is rubbish, if they are show me. It might change my opinion.
    Norway left and they didn't collapse. The UK said they would, they didn't.
     
  20. Raven484
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    Raven484 Contributing Member

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    Thanks Dante, this is a good post on why you want to stay. Workers rights are important. What does the UK plan to do if they leave? Are they going to change anything? Have they made a new Worker's Standard that you guys can vote on? Thanks for the post, I will try to find some answers also.
     
  21. Dante Dases
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    Dante Dases Contributing Member Contributor

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    Virtually nothing has been said by the Tories on the remain campaign about workers rights. And nothing at all by the outers. I suspect we'd find a lot of employment rights being stripped away gradually - a day less holiday here, a week less maternity pay there - as we've already seen attempts to change employment relations under this government (or, indeed, the coalition as it was). In short, if you're unfairly dismissed you haven't got any course of redress, unless you happen to have your own money to spend as they've increased tribunal fees, reduced access to legal aid for legal advice, and increased the rights of employers to sack you because your face doesn't fit.

    That said, if someone did come out with a plan I wouldn't trust them. The number of bare-faced lies (from both sides) in this campaign is staggering.
     
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  22. Tenderiser
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    Tenderiser Not a man Contest Administrator Supporter Contributor

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    The Tories have been eroding workers' rights as much as they can since gaining power, with weak opposition from the Lib Dems during the Coalition. If they had the power to overrule the EU laws I have absolutely no doubt that they would.

    Quote for bloody truth! Another Angry Voice said it'd become Project Fear vs Project Fear and he's right (as usual).
     
  23. plothog
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    plothog Contributing Member Supporter Contributor

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    Online polls show public opinion to be fairly even, while telephone polls show a modest lead for remain. - hard to tell for sure how things will turn out. Remain will be probably win, but it's close enough to keep the drama levels up.

    The BBC tries to be politically neutral and present both sides arguments. I think they manage as well as can be expected, - if you read comment sections on BBC articles, both sides of the argument will claim that the BBC is being biased against them.
     
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  24. Shadowfax
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    Shadowfax Contributing Member Contributor

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    1/ This is not balanced reporting.
    2/ Norway never left the EU, they just never joined. I'm not sure who you're quoting as saying they would collapse, but whoever it was probably overlooked the fact that they have a massive income from selling oil...to the EU, who are only too glad to get it.
     
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  25. Wayjor Frippery
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    Wayjor Frippery Contributing Member

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    Norway has never been a member of the EU. They have voted twice not to join, but they are a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), which requires them to abide by much of the same legislation (particularly the free movement of goods, services, people and capital) as EU member states without having any MEPs of their own — hence my comment above.

    ETA: @Shadowfax beat me to it.
     
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