Sadly, in this day and time, technology pretty much rules the world. I really hope that books never go fully digital, because there is nothing more relaxing to me than sitting back and opening up a book, not on the internet, but in book form.
Hey Al, I'm not sure it's my own personal confidence in the cloud that sees my personal records maintained there! But I know what you're getting at. A stat that I can call on (just because I researched it just recently) relates to Australia and consumer confidence in cloud storage. While heaps of internet users are happy to use webmail services (essentially cloud-supported), they are less likely to use cloud storage for things like photos or video -- only 9% of Australian internet users backed up their hard drive content to an online storage facility. I suggest this trend is similar across the developed world. I, for one, will be retaining most of my personal content locally for the time being. And I still think your timescales are a little aggressive
Having read your articles, I'd default to my books-as-art view. There will be a huge market for that type of book. I'll give you your e-readers, etc, and that they'll be a dominant form of publishing (most paperbacks are nothing special), but also that physical books will go through their own revolution. For all the digital distribution in the world, there are still collector's editions of games containing figurines, cloth maps, t-shirts, etc, and people buy them. I do take exception to your reference to the automotive industry eliminating any practical use of the horse. I don't see any shortage of horses in the world, not here in the UK, and not anywhere else. As pets, horse-racing, etc...mainly Western European thinking, and by no means frivolous either. Another point I just thought of - physical printing has to remain due to constraints on amateur musical productions. Participants in these productions are given the material they will be rehearsing, but it is only loaned to groups and must be returned after any licensed productions have run their course. Having to get all this on to multiple e-readers would cause a headache and be more complex than it needs to be. I honestly don't see the Really Useful Group only distributing librettos digitally, they'll need to be printed out at some point.
So, this from the BBC today: British publishers have reported record sales for 2012, despite the recession and the rise of e-readers. Total spending on printed and digital books rose 4% to £3.3bn last year, the Publishers Association said. Digital spending rose by 66% to £411m. But it does not appear to have led to a marked decline for print, with physical book sales down by just 1% at £2.9bn. It looks like there's plenty of life left in the old dog yet!
I have books in the attic, books in the closets, books in the bookshelves, good books that I sometimes take days trying to find just the right box -- "Mari, do you remember which box I put the '38 American Practical Navigator in?" You never know when you're going to need to know the meridian altitude of the sun's lower limb on April 14, 1937. But, my Kindle carries hundreds of books that my children will have at their fingertips when they finally realize what a book really is. Actually, we have five. I fought the digital revolution, but it's winning. I succumbed, and have learned to enjoy both print and digital.
I really hope not. I'm old school I guess, still like vinyl and playing solitaire with real cards and so on. There's something about holding a book in your hands, the little imperfections in the print, yellowing of the pages and the smell. The community feel of those old pages, knowing your sharing the experience that other people had and other people will have as you pass the book on.
I think I'm a very good example of this situation. In my academic world, I have a program that is a virtual library. It is cross-referenced and fully searchable for over 5100 books, parchments, scrolls, etc. And yet, if and when I get the chance, you had better believe that I also pick up a hardback version. Not all the time, and only of those books that are of much importance to me. However, I will never go completely digital, because there is no benefit to it. There will be times that I can't get access, or times that power has gone out, or times that I have to do a presentation somewhere, and it is still handy to have books on a shelf that I can pull off and take with me, then pass around the room. I know, that is more academic than literary, but the same concept applies, I believe. After all, if you look hard enough, you can still find 8-track players being made. Even more interesting, Cassette tapes are now making a comeback just as Vinyl's made a comeback. CDs are still very popular even though MP3, WMA, and other files have pretty much taken over the market. As I said in a previous post, if it's in a medium that people love, it will continue on. The feel of the cover, the smell of the pages, the thrill of seeing the number (1) or another designation for a first-edition, that'll never be replaced by digital. What I COULD see happening, is digital being the first to hit the market, and then those that sell well, followed up with hardbacks. It'd cut down tremendously on cost for the publishers and wouldn't be as much of a risk.
I sincerely hope not, but if it does, I could learn to live with it. Nothing beats the smell of new and/or old books. Physically turning the pages to continue the adventure is something that I would miss dearly. In saying that though, I do have a few books on my iPad. Mostly books that I have been unable to find in bookstores here. Things can go wrong in the digital world, your Kindle, iPad or other handheld device can go wrong. A book, properly cared for, can last forever.
I would venture to say that many writerly types are secretly behind the recent resurgence of vinyl (I know I am). Sure, statistics show that the market for digitalia (new word!) is growing and the market for print shrinking; but there will always be a stalwart group of print people who will make the feel, smell and experience of print literature sexy and financially viable again.
