Labour will be mauled at the next election

By Gallowglass · May 10, 2010 · ·
  1. There's now talk of a so-called coalition of losers between the two formerly left-wing British parties, Labour (having disastrously lost the election) and the Liberal Democrats (having disastrously lost seats after having failed to set out any credible policies, despite brilliant success in the televised leader's debates).

    This is to the detriment of the Conservatives, by far the largest party, led by David Cameron. His refusal to budge on electoral reform (and, from his perspective, rightly so; proportional representation would lead to Labour and the Liberal Democrats consistently benefiting from hung parliaments, by declaring formal coalitions, and thus excluding the Conservatives from any election) has led to Nick Clegg (Lib Dem leader) stalling to decide whether to do a deal with the current Prime Minister (Labour).

    So, from the title, you are now probably wondering two things: firstly, how will there be a second election if Labour and the Liberal Democrats do a deal? Second, why exactly would they be mauled? More than half of the population voted for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats, so why would they fail to gain public support?

    Well, the two answers are linked. The numbers of MPs in the House of Commons in 650. The numbers of Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs is less than 326, the minimum number required for a majority government. If there is a minority government, nothing will be accomplished, and the country will probably return to the polls later in the year. To gain a majority, the parties will need to do a deal with others; namely, the SNP (Scottish National Party) and Plaid Cymru (the Welsh equivalent). That would be the end of both major party's reign in England.

    The reason? For their continued support in a majority government (thus avoiding holding a second election), they would effectively ban the ruling government from cutting public spending in their respective Celtic nations. England (which is already the poor relation in the United Kingdom; no parliament, no independent government, subsidies for Scotland, and no free university fees which the Scots currently enjoy, even though they pay for them) will not take too kindly to having to bear the entirety of the £850 billion pound national debt plus the £185 billion a year deficit, as well as payments to the EU and the other constituent nations of the United Kingdom.

    The Labour and Liberal Democrats may have to face the prospect of a massive Conservative majority in a second election, simply for the number of seats to form a majority government. If they do not form a majority government, they will have to go to the polls, and their inactivity and uselessness would have a similar effect as providing the Celtic nations with free gifts and toys.

    So, Conservatives, go back to your constituencies and prepare for government. Gormless McRuin and Clegg, thanks for whatever's left of the English economy - you'll no longer rule over it when the ballot boxes reopen.

Comments

  1. Banzai
    The reason that PR would exclude the Tories is that their politics are antiquated. They cannot work with other parties, which is what PR, and a modern democracy, requires. For all you may criticise Gordon Brown (and I think unfairly; he has brought us out of recession, and he's a hell of a lot better with the economy than the Tory contingent led by that idiot George Osborne), he has shown that he is willing to do whatever necessary for what he believes in. He has shown that he can compromise with other parties, even to the extent of his own resignation.

    And as for a Conservative landslide at the next election, I don't think it's the fargone conclusion that you suggest. An anti-Tory coalition (which it would be, if Labour and the Lib Dems can pull it off) would immediately take steps towards a PR system, which would give the Lib Dems a bigger slice of seats, and reduce the Tories'.

    I happen to completely disagree with the Tories economic policies. I think that the reckless and dramatic cuts they propose will send us tumbling back into recession, and although some cuts do need to be made, care needs to be taken not to destroy what GORDON BROWN has managed to give us out of an economy mangled and destroyed by bankers.

    I am sad to see Gordon go, but he has shown maturity and committment to this country in doing so. Where Cameron has been squabbling and refusing to compromise, and has left this country without a government, Brown has stepped up to the mark and is prepared to compromise even to the extent of his own resignation. That shows true substance in my eyes, and shows up the Tories for the selfish power-grabbing worms they are.

    Between them, Labour and the Lib Dems got the most votes. There is no problem of legitimacy. If Miliband or Johnson becomes PM, then there is still no problem of legitimacy. This is parliamentary democracy, not a presidential one. We elect representatives, not a Prime Minister.

    Cameron has assumed it was his God given right to be PM, and now he is paying for his arrogance. All he needed to do was give the Lib Dems a referendum on voting reform (without needing to support it, he could have brought the Ashcroft-Murdoch machine to bear against them) and he would have had his government. His selfishness, and his party's selfishness, has orchestrated his downfall.

    This coalition can work. It can save this country from Tory foolishness, and it represents a maturity and a step towards a more modern method of government. The people of this country will see that. Murdoch can only shout so loud, and he can't blindfold the nation. Labour haven't been perfect by a long shot, but they're showing themselves to be head and shoulders above the Tories in terms of dignity and dedication to this country.
  2. Gallowglass
    Do you know what the Conservative policies are? I'm not trying to annoy you, but, seriously, they're pretty much identical to Labour policies (with about three major exceptions that you've probably heard of). The Labour government has actually been using Thatcherite economics since 1997.

    His party has taken us from 4th in the world to 7th, with a small national debt to one which is now above average, even for the bloated debts of large western economies. His handling of the economy during his years are Chancellor of the Exchequer were good, but somehow he let that slip. We were not one of the last - we were the last to pull out of recession in the top ten economies.

    Gordon Brown may have finally managed to bring us back up, but he still supports a public sector worth 60% of the jobs in the country, producing no financial income, whilst the private sector is being assaulted without the support of the Labour-funding unions. Cuts need to be made - and drastic ones - especially regarding the quangos, bonuses, and social engineering attempts funded by Labour. And EU payments can be brought into proportion with our population, as well. Gordon Brown (and the Labour party in general) will do none of those things: they are held to ransom by the unions who defend the 'rights' of the public sector, they actively support unproductive quangoes and ridiculous numbers of highly-paid non-jobs, and Darling just paid off another £10 billion to the EU.

    The Lib Dems and the Conservatives got more.

    That would be a one-party state where the Liberal Democrats could dictate unpopular policies (slashing defence spending, an asylum for illegal immigrants, joining the Euro) in return for supporting a Labour government which does not have majority support. The Tories would not be reduced; they'd be shut out of politics, as would anyone else who was not a Liberal Democrat or Labour supporter (which would merge into the same thing).

    I don't want a one-party state, which is what Labour intends to create (even if it will collapse under the weight of English hatred).
  3. Banzai
    I think the issue here is that we're on opposite sides of the political battle lines. I don't think there's any chance of either of us persuading the other around, and I hope you realise that I don't take any of this personally (and I hope you don't either). It's just politics after all.


    Anyway, Tory policies are different to Labour policies. There are areas where they are the same, but there are a lot of profound differences. I disagree with the Tories on the economy, on how they want society to work (the "do-it-yourself" principle), their attitude to equality, and how they conduct themselves.

    We were the last out of recession, and I'm not claiming GB was perfect. There should have been more regulation of the banks, there should have been more housing built. But when the recession hit, he reacted exemplarily. The Tories opposed every move he made, and he was proved to be right in nationalising the banks, and bailing out companies rather than let them go bust. I think he has demonstrated his competence, whereas the Tories have demonstrated their incompetence. Even Ken Clarke (the Tory MP who makes the most sense) has admitted Gordon was right to nationalise the banks.

    The payment of £8bn is to help support a trading community on which we rely heavily, and on which our continued recovery depends. It is not too much to pay to make sure that the UK doesn't go the way of Greece.

    And yeah, the Lib Dems and Tories would have more votes than the Lib Dems and Labour. And Clegg recognised that when he went into talks with the Tories first, and they have failed to reach a compromise. Clegg cannot be expected to abandon his principles and the policies of his party, which his voters elected him for, any more than Cameron cannot be. Clegg was willing to give wiggle room, Cameron wasn't. That is why chances of a Tory government are diminishing.

    Don't be obtuse. It wouldn't be a one party government, that's the entire point. It would be an all-party government, because all the parties other than the Tories are capable of compromising and working together. It works well enough in European countries like Germany. The Conservatives will either adapt and learn to work with other parties, or they will, as you say, be shut out of politics. Adapt or die.
  4. s.knight
    I predict a riot :D
  5. madhoca
    @ Gallowglass: cheers mate

    *applause*
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