1. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    The Natural Disasters Thread (may it remain quiet)

    Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by Iain Aschendale, Sep 28, 2018.

    With @Wreybies getting smacked last year and looking at another busy season ahead, my June earthquake, September 4th typhoon, @Link the Writer's hurricane, and the typhoon that's due to hit me in about 44 hours, I thought it might be useful to have a clearinghouse for us to keep the board up to date on how things are going when they start going.

    Not that I want this to be a busy thread, mind you.
     
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  2. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    I'll start. Typhoon Trami is coming to town, the Japanese Meteorological Agency is predicting winds of around 125mph in Osaka on Sunday, Sept 30th at about 0900-ish UCT (1500 local time). This is bigger than the one that hit us at the start of the month, but I'm in a modern, steel-framed apartment building that's well inland, so I'm not too concerned. I will be bringing everything inside this time, but worst-case Mrs. A and I can chill in the bathroom (center of the building, no windows) with a couple bottles of wine and some cheese & crackers if the windows go.

    September Typhoon 2.png
     
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  3. Link the Writer

    Link the Writer Flipping Out For A Good Story. Contributor

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    Thank you for this.

    On my end of the Atlantic, there’s nothing coming at us (for now) and the other two stories closer to Africa (Isaac and the other one whose name I can’t remember) seem to have dissipated — leaving only Tropical Storm Kirk to worry about but it seems to be breaking up near the Caribbean.
     
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  4. Wreybies

    Wreybies Arroz Con Admin Operations Manager Staff Supporter Contributor

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    Yeah, wind shear in the Caribbean isn't giving Kirk much of a chance, thankfully. We were supposed to be having shit weather already today and there isn't a cloud in the sky this morning. I've still got my eye on the African coast, though. That formation off the coast of Guinea and Sierra Leone already has the classic upper and lower blob shape. o_O

    IMG_0729.jpg

    ETA: For those who don't live where these things are of concern, here's what you learn when you live on the South-East Coast of the U.S.A.

    A tropical storm can have many shapes, but the classic shape that starts to give people concern is the one pictured below. This is a system in its early phase when it's still small and only just starting to organize. It can still result in nothing at this point, depending on many other factors, but when you see this shape crossing the Atlantic, you start to pay attention. Large, backswept upper blob, round lower blob, little gaggle of baby blobs trailing behind.

    Untitled.png
     
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  5. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    The sky is mostly clear, there's a slight breeze, but the air feels... a half bottle of cola that's been sealed and in the fridge for a couple weeks, it gives a weak hiss when you open it.

    And Mrs. A pointed out the weather map to me. This is current, see that "25" under the yellow circle in the center?

    October Typhoon 1.png

    That's next week's typhoon, projected to follow the same course as this one.

    Newest track info for this one looks like it's slowed down (I think), so it'll be mid-evening (8-9pm) at the epicenter for Osaka. 12-13 hours from now.
     
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  6. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    Anticlimax. I managed to get to the convenience store and back without even getting my umbrella destroyed. Got pretty much soaked from the shoulders down, and the issue was in doubt a few times, but really nothing worthy of the name "typhoon."

    Better luck next week.
     
  7. Wreybies

    Wreybies Arroz Con Admin Operations Manager Staff Supporter Contributor

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    Well, I'm certainly glad it was anticlimactic. Apropos of nothing, as a one-time Melbournite Floridian I certainly experienced this kind of thing. Sometimes they're windy with little rain, other times not so much wind, but biblical flood, and, as in the case of Maria, a whopping dose of both.

    Also, that system off the coast of Africa I pointed out the other day appears to have fallen prey to the same shear that pretty much nixed Kirk, so that one's off the radar for now.
     
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  8. Shenanigator

    Shenanigator Has the Vocabulary of a Well-Educated Sailor. Supporter Contributor

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    Thank you for this thread, @Iain Aschendale ! Glad you and Wrey and @Link the Writer are safe! :superyesh:

    @Wreybies which app or site are you using? (I can't see its logo on my tiny screen.) Any recommendations of your faves are appreciated. The number of choices in the App store is mind-boggling (four different apps for NOAA!).


    Signed,
    Part-Time Gulf Coast Hurricane Newbie Who Looks To the Pros Who Have This Shit Down
     
  9. Wreybies

    Wreybies Arroz Con Admin Operations Manager Staff Supporter Contributor

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    The one I use is this one:

    (Holy Mother of Giant Images, Batman! Sorry 'bout that... Re-scaled to non-Godzilla proportions) :-D
    upload_2018-9-30_11-52-20.png
     
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  10. katina

    katina Contributor Contributor

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    Nature seems to be very angry. I wonder why.
    A great thread by the way. Here in England is slightly quieter.
    I don't know how anyone can prepare for anything like this.
     
  11. Shenanigator

    Shenanigator Has the Vocabulary of a Well-Educated Sailor. Supporter Contributor

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    Thank you so much! I've switched to the laptop now, so seeing that big-ass image gave me a major case of the giggles.

    edited because I'm still half-asleep enough to leave the word "image" out of the above sentence
     
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  12. Link the Writer

    Link the Writer Flipping Out For A Good Story. Contributor

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    We’re just used to it, I guess. We keep an eye on it with the TV, and if it looks too powerful, we pack up and head elsewhere and hope our house doesn’t get flatten.
     
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  13. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    It's the next morning now, and I still don't get it. The data all looked good, wind was in the 100mph sustained, 135 gusts, rain load looked good, track was close enough to going straight overhead as not to really matter too much, and we got... some rain, bit of gusting. It's like the scientific monitors were hooked up to a different system.

    Still, number 25 is on the way. Not as strong yet, but hope springs eternal.
     
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  14. Wreybies

    Wreybies Arroz Con Admin Operations Manager Staff Supporter Contributor

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    Mostly you prepare for what comes after. I was talking with @Mckk just yesterday about this and thinking about the major storms I've lived through first hand.

    2017 - Irma - Cat 5 (PR) sideswipe, not a direct hit
    2017 - Maria - 2 mph shy of a Cat 5 (PR) direct hit - longest continuous power outage in recorded U.S. history.
    2004 - Charley - Cat 4 (FL) direct hit
    2004 - Frances - Cat 4 (FL) direct hit
    2004 - Jeanne - Cat 3 (FL) direct hit
    1992 - Andrew - Cat 5 (FL) direct hit
    1982 - Iwa - Cat 1 (HI) direct hit

    And that's not counting all the Cat-1's and uncounteded tropical storms that ran up the Florida coast in the 20-odd years I lived there. We didn't even count those since they were so numerous.
     
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  15. Shenanigator

    Shenanigator Has the Vocabulary of a Well-Educated Sailor. Supporter Contributor

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    Noted! Thank you, Wrey, I did not know that.
     
  16. Mckk

    Mckk Moderator Staff Supporter Contributor

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    This was supposed to be a sombre thread and I've done nothing but giggle so far! :supergrin:thanks for the laughs!

    Well to add to the convo, I've never experience a hurricane and it would seem I missed both major typhoons in Hong Kong (the first one because I hadn't been born yet, and then the next one came only after I'd already emigrated) - in other words, zero experience. So, I was caught out in a storm last week and it TERRIFIED me :brb: It even had a name: Storm Fabienne! So massive that it was hard to find any info on it on Google and it didn't even destroy my umbrella. Well, it did claim a few lives in Germany and supposedly were "hurricane-levels" wind in some places at the height of the storm. Either way, utterly terrifying for me. I know I'm probably overreacting but again, zero storm experience :D
     
  17. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    "Deadly" storms piss me off. I may have mentioned this before, but practically every time there's a noteworthy weather event in Japan, some geriatric idiot elderly gentleman between 68 and 85 years old decides that he needs to fix his TV antenna in the height of the storm.

    Sing it with me (choose your own tune)

    I have a suspicion that it's actually a form of sacrifice to Kaminarisama, the god of thunder, but I'm not sure of that. Anyway, it hardly qualifies as a deadly storm if the death is due more to individual human stupidity than the power of nature.
     
  18. Mckk

    Mckk Moderator Staff Supporter Contributor

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    That sounds like it came out of a comedy :ohno: and I feel like TV antennas are like from a generation ago (or maybe I just got no clue how TV works anymore). Do people still use antennas? I feel like it should be either a satellite dish or the internet...
     
  19. Shenanigator

    Shenanigator Has the Vocabulary of a Well-Educated Sailor. Supporter Contributor

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    That rat bastard Michael turned into a hurricane overnight.

    Gulf Coasters in the cone, time to prep and check your spaghetti models!

    I checked the spaghetti, and as of right now Michael's supposed to just graze past us (we're out of the cone), although we're between the 40-60% chance of tropical storm force winds, and there's currently a storm surge watch in effect. I'm on the other side of the highway from the beach, so water isn't a factor. Wind I worry about, but I'm doing all my preps and getting ready for power outages in case. It's my first rodeo, so I'm optimistically calling this a drill for now while knocking rapidly on wood.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Edited to add maps and spaghetti.
     
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2018
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  20. Shenanigator

    Shenanigator Has the Vocabulary of a Well-Educated Sailor. Supporter Contributor

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    Michael’s now a Cat 3, I’m still out of the cone, but we have a storm surge warning of 4-6 feet. (I’m East of the evac area though.)

    The Panhandle’s gonna get slammed, and the Carolinas are in for some (more) crap as well. Stay safe, y’all!

    *edited in the word “get” because, coherent sentences are a plus.
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2018
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  21. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    And I'm sure after the storm has passed through the area, all those damn Panhandlers will be, well, begging for help or something....

    (Sorry, had to be done, stay safe, and I do wish you well if you're in the affected area. Unless your name is Andrew, and you used to be my boss at the [REDACTED] school, in which case I still hope you get impaled by a storm-driven swordfish or swept up into a sharknado or something. That is all.)
     
  22. Shenanigator

    Shenanigator Has the Vocabulary of a Well-Educated Sailor. Supporter Contributor

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    The rat bastard has gone to Cat 4.


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2018
  23. Iain Aschendale

    Iain Aschendale Benevolent Ochlocrat Staff Supporter Contributor

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    Looks like your dance card is pretty full, stay safe!
     
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  24. Mink

    Mink Contributor Contributor

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    And they're saying it has the potential to reach a higher category still.

    Stay safe, everyone!
     
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  25. Wreybies

    Wreybies Arroz Con Admin Operations Manager Staff Supporter Contributor

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    And I'm staring across the gymnasium floor at Nadine and she's staring back at me. I really don't want to dance at this dance, but golly the girls do seem to have a crush on me. Looks like she may just go join Leslie for a chat and a glass of punch from the punchbowl. I'll just try to melt into the bleachers....
     
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