1. jannert

    jannert Retired Mod Supporter Contributor

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    Wow. Pessimistic or Realistic?

    Discussion in 'Agent Discussion' started by jannert, Mar 24, 2017.

    Edited 25 March, 2017 ....Just checked: The blog's date is 2005. Which is maybe why it doesn't deal much with online publication. Obviously the figures will be out of date as well, but I'm wondering if the general thrust of his arguments are still true.

    I just read this article I ran across while searching for something else. It's written by an Australian author with over 30 published books to his credit, including one bestselling series. (All Fantasy, I believe.)

    It's a comprehensive look at what happens to a book (and author) from getting representation by an agent to what happens as you build and sustain a career as a writer.

    I'd be interested in hearing from the traditionally-published authors on this forum. Based on their own experience, is he being pessimistic or realistic? I certainly am not reading 'optimistic.'

    But interesting. And he has quite a track record.

    http://www.ian-irvine.com/on-writing/the-truth-about-publishing/
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2017
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  2. BayView

    BayView Huh. Interesting. Contributor

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    I wouldn't say pessimistic - writing's a tough gig. But he's talking about writing to make a living, which not too many on this forum are seriously contemplating, I don't think.

    And he seems to be almost completely ignoring the digital side of the business, which is a bit strange... I don't see a date on the post, but unless it's quite old, I don't know why he'd be so focused on print books (esp. in the self-publishing area). Maybe it's because at least some of his books are children's books, and I don't think those traditionally do as well in e-book format?
     
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  3. BayView

    BayView Huh. Interesting. Contributor

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    I also question his version of "minimum" expenses as a writer. He's treating writing as a full-time job and business, so there are some expenses that he considers mandatory that I wouldn't consider so. Like, most of his expenses.

    As an amateur writer, I don't have the sales he has by any means, but I also don't have nearly the same expenses, so my net income from writing really isn't much lower than his is.

    There are lots of different ways to play this game, and lots of different conditions under which a player can decide that she's "won". He's looking at writing from a very business-like perspective, and that's totally valid, but it's not the only way to go.
     
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  4. Homer Potvin

    Homer Potvin A tombstone hand and a graveyard mind Staff Supporter Contributor

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    I don't know. Zero mention of the ebook business or even the Internet? Book stores and newspapers as the pinnacle of promotion? A $4k-6k budget for typesetting and self-pub printing? S.A.S.E. (let the kids Google that one!) for full manuscript queries? My guess would be 10 years old at least. Maybe he's an old curmudgeon or... hold up... found this at the very end below some ads for his books:

    "Ian, January 2005"

    Still a great article. Thanks for sharing, Jan! The core principles and expectations he lays out are definitely still relevant. The business and promotional breakdown? Probably not....
     
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  5. Cave Troll

    Cave Troll It's Coffee O'clock everywhere. Contributor

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    I got the pessimistic attitude pretty much from the start of the article.

    Though from a marketing standpoint, I have noticed the easier to market
    something, the more likely it will be taken into consideration. Why try
    to take a chance on something that could fail, when you can simply
    carry things that have been proven to move? Then it comes down to
    how you want to market it. What is the appeal to the target consumer?
    Then use all the buzzwords, and such to appeal to that demographic.
    Though I understand that marketing a book is a bit different than
    another product because it does not come with a fact sheet, or manual
    to play off.

    Though if you look at a lot of what hits the market, there is really nothing
    trying to be much more than a written version of a thing one might find
    channel surfing. Hence why finding the simplest things to market angle.
    minimal effort maximum payoff. It is all pretty straight forward for someone
    who follows what is trending and the performance of each type. Given
    the fact that anyone with a keyboard can write a book (good or bad) and
    publish it themselves, gives publishers a form of competition. Eventually
    they will adjust their strategy when more people find that it is easier and
    faster to do things without an intermediary deciding what is 'good' and
    what is 'bad'.

    While getting published by a company is a big deal, there will come a point
    when they will have to fight to remain prominent, distingquished, and have to
    engage in taking on riskier things to survive. This is taking into account that
    people demand a better quality product, than what is being presented at the
    present. But since people like familiarity that does not engage them in the same
    fashion that it would have in the past, it will be a while before things improve
    across the board. It is a lot like the art industry pushing laziness to the top
    and saying it is brilliant, when in reality it is the lowest common denominator.
    Hence why try to be innovative, when you have something that is simple to move
    and reward from?

    But as one on this thread has said before about a little thing called critical thinking,
    which is in short supply these days. :)
     
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  6. joe sixpak

    joe sixpak Banned

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    the link to the aussie author is spot on but a bit optimistic

    things have changed a lot in recent years
    digital and the internet has seriously impacted writing music and art
    when everybody can be an author/musician/artist and make their work available to the world
    then everybody will be making their work available hiding the good efforts because their egos tell them they are just as good as curated work was

     
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  7. Megs33

    Megs33 Active Member

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    i think it seems pretty realistic. if i actually see my writing project to fruition, i want to go for a full publishing gig. i like this article because it makes me examine what i'm doing and it makes me ask myself if all this work is worth it if it ends up being one of the 98% that gets rejected. The answer, for now at least, is yes.

    so if anything, this article helps me accept the fact that my work has to be impeccable. inscrutable. daring, and eye-catching. i don't know that i'll ever feel like i've achieved that, but i'll give it a go. And then all that work may amount to "nothing" by my goals... but by adjusting my expectations, i have to (and want to) learn to be okay with that. give me a battering ram to my unrealistic expectations any day.
     
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  8. Pinkymcfiddle

    Pinkymcfiddle Banned

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    I am emphatically not coming on to you, this is not a chat up line (unless that sort of thing floats your boat) but you look incredibly like my father's side of the family, you could be his niece/ sister (but younger)
     
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  9. GingerCoffee

    GingerCoffee Web Surfer Girl Contributor

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    One thing that needs to be pointed out, there is a whole slew of people who are wanna-be writers in addition to the slew of serious aspiring authors who will never be great but will indeed become decent writers. In addition, there is a smaller number of writers who will end up rich and famous. This should not be a surprise to anyone.

    Looking at this list from the article I see the people in my first category: wanna-be writers.
    I see these people come and go from my critique group and I see them in writers' forums. People post things like being upset at bad Amazon reviews and you go look at their Kindle preview and agree with the bad review.

    The group of wanna-be writers I refer to in this case is not every new writer. Rather they are those who haven't taken seriously the issue that, with the rare exception of the gifted, one has to learn how to write. They spit out a novel they believe is great without ever having had anyone look at it, or critique it except maybe a friend or relative.

    If you take that group out of your data, that leaves serious aspiring authors who will end up on the continuum of success. Some will never quite learn the trade. Some will learn and write decent but less than successful works. Decent is good and nothing to be ashamed of. Some will write better than average books that reach a readership but never reach stardom. I consider that successful.

    Only a few are ever going to get rich and famous. That's not a realistic goal for most writers. But if you love to write, and/or you love your WIP, writing a better than average book that reaches a readership is a goal one can be proud of.

    In my humble opinion.

    I just want my book to be well written and to reach some level of readership beyond friends and family. I am very optimistic I am well on my way to reaching that goal. Becoming rich and famous is not a necessary goal. And if you measure success by 'rich and famous', you probably should be pessimistic about that.
     
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  10. jannert

    jannert Retired Mod Supporter Contributor

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    I went back to see if I could get the date he wrote this, and the date is at the bottom ...2005. I just edited my OP to include this information. That's probably why he didn't spend much time with self-pubbed or ebook data.

    However, what I found interesting about the article—and I suspect a lot of what he says about book deals is still relevant—is that it smashes the notion that all a writer needs to do is get an agent, the agent sells the book, and the writer is in clover.

    I especially found it interesting to read about what happens to a book once it goes on sale in bookshops and online, etc. When it gets discounted. When it gets sent back as 'remainders.' How long a book stays on a backlist, and what happens to the backlist, etc. Also the notion that, after the book is successfully sold, the writer still needs to put a lot of effort into promoting it themselves.

    I rather liked what he said about the sudden, overnight big-sellers. The JK Rowlings, the 50 Shades of Grays. He referred to these as 'the lottery winners.' This doesn't mean they didn't deserve the win, but that their big 'win' is just as unlikely as winning the lottery. Expecting to be 'big' is the same as expecting a lottery win will pull you out of poverty. It happens. But not often enough to be statistically predictible, or useful in everyday life.

    While this article doesn't discourage me from my own writing, because I don't care about making a living or a secondary living at it, I'm wondering how realistic it is for people who DO want to make a living with their writing. That's why hearing from you, @BayView , has been interesting. You ARE a successful writer, in that you are traditionally published and have multiple books for sale.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2017
  11. ChickenFreak

    ChickenFreak Contributor Contributor

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    I've never assumed that. I've assumed that if you get an agent, and the agent manages to sell the book, the odds that you'll make some money are higher than if you self-publish. But I've never assumed that that money would be more than a modest addition to the income from the writer's day job.
     
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  12. jannert

    jannert Retired Mod Supporter Contributor

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    Oh, I wasn't implying you thought that. :) However, I have encountered people who do. Or at least people who don't realise how complicated the process is, and how short-term their success can be. (This is what really surprised me.) Even for people who are traditionally published.

    I know I support self-publishing, and that's the route I plan to take. But in terms of this article, there isn't any difference as to what happens to a book eventually. Basically, self-pubbed AND traditionally published books all have unexpectedly short shelf lives, unless the authors are extraordinarily lucky.

    One of the things that I find slightly discouraging, from a personal point of view, is how often a 'new book' is expected of an established author. There is no way I could see myself writing a worthwhile non-fluffy book every year. Sooner or later that rat race can claim a writer. Quality becomes quantity. I think we've all seen that happen.

    I now begin to see why so many respected authors still have 'day jobs!'

    I regularly attend a book festival here in Scotland, and while many of the names of the guests are familiar to me, VERY few of them actually make enough money with their writing that they don't need to supplement with another job. (A popular 'other' job is teaching creative writing at university level. Many established authors do this. Another popular occupation is 'journalist.')

    The standout full-time authors I've seen (in terms of personal income) are Val McDermid and Ian Rankin, both of whom are established crime writers whose books have been turned into TV series. These are not the 'lottery winners,' though. These writers worked very hard to get where they are now, and success was not instantaneous. Interestingly, they are close personal friends, who knew each other long before either of them became successful.

    I was also privileged to see and hear the late/great Iain Banks—another close personal friend of the above two—who wrote successful books about contemporary Scotland (some of which were made into TV movies.) He also wrote a hugely popular 'Culture' sci-fi series, which he wrote under the name of Iain M Banks, to distinguish the sci-fi from his other work.

    I've also met and heard James Robertson, who became a full-time author in the 1990s, although he also runs a small independent publishing company as well. But I'm struggling to think of any other full-time writers whom I've actually seen and heard in person. There must be a few, but I can't think of any. Writing is rarely a full-time job that brings a decent income.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2017
  13. BayView

    BayView Huh. Interesting. Contributor

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    I could be wrong, but I think there may also be an element of writing not being something that lends itself well to full-time pursuit. When I get stretches of time off I often think I'll produce millions of words - During my regular time, when I produce about 1K words an hour but can only write for an hour a day, I produce 1K words a day. If I have all this time off, I can make writing my full-time job and if I write for 8 hours a day I can produce 8K words a day, etc...

    But I can't write for 8 hours a day. Not even close. I can write for three or four hours, on a good day, but any more than that and I'm totally burned out. So, yes, my output increases when I'm able to be a "full time" writer, but not by as much as it should.

    So maybe it's just as well for writers to have other jobs, since it would be hard to write full-time anyway.
     
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  14. jannert

    jannert Retired Mod Supporter Contributor

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    There is a LOT of truth to that! I know I haven't produced nearly so well since I retired. Maybe it's knowing you only have a short bit of the day when you can write that makes you buckle down to it. It's too easy to think ...hey, what's the rush ...I've got all the rest of my life.
     
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  15. Homer Potvin

    Homer Potvin A tombstone hand and a graveyard mind Staff Supporter Contributor

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    Yep. That's what they call "urgency" in business. That's why you see "one day only sales," consumers need to feel urgency to get them out to the stores/restaurants etc. If it's an everyday deal there's no reason to rush out of the house.
     
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  16. Wreybies

    Wreybies Thrice Retired Supporter Contributor

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    It's called the law of diminishing returns. In this case the one factor being added, with all other things being equal, is time.

    Screen Shot 2017-03-25 at 11.48.11 AM.png
     
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  17. Kingtype

    Kingtype Banned Contributor

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    I'm not sure why but this seems relevant for some reason. At least on somedays or for writers who want to make a living but never write lol

     
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  18. Tea@3

    Tea@3 Senior Member

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    I think anyyone interested in being published today should watch the documentary 'Press Pause Play' (find it free on youtube or netflix, or on other venues. Just google it)
     
  19. Laurin Kelly

    Laurin Kelly Contributor Contributor

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    Yep, this is me for sure! I've been having some issues at work and half-joked with my husband that I wish I hadn't already used my once-in-a-marriage chance to ditch corporate America and follow my extremely underpaid bliss while he took care of the lion's share of the financials. But in reality, I don't think I would be disciplined enough to write as a full-time job. Dancing was different because there was at least somewhat of a schedule; classes, gigs, workshops, showcases, etc. But just me and my computer all day long, day after day? Nah, I think I'd spend most of my time faffing about on the internet, to be honest.
     
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  20. BayView

    BayView Huh. Interesting. Contributor

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    Can you give an executive summary? An hour and half is a long time for me to watch something... (I don't have a good attention span for film)
     
  21. Tea@3

    Tea@3 Senior Member

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    I'd hate to attempt that, and take a chance on skewing it somehow. But here's the trailer, and some quick bits:

    trailer 1

    trailer 2

    trailer 3

    trailer 4

    short clip

    short clip

    andrew keen highlights

    moby highlights
     
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  22. Homer Potvin

    Homer Potvin A tombstone hand and a graveyard mind Staff Supporter Contributor

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    Way cool! I'll definitely be watching this... thanks!
     
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  23. Homer Potvin

    Homer Potvin A tombstone hand and a graveyard mind Staff Supporter Contributor

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    My long view on the whole writing business thing is I'm more than happy to lose money for the sake of establishing platform and readership. I paid to have my last book edited in the inevitable likely scenario that is rejected by agents/publishers and I end up going the self-pub route. It's a good book, I'm happy with it, but it may not be terribly commercial and I'm a realist. Currently I'm trying to wrap my head around the writing commercially thing, which is something I always knew but didn't understand until very recently. I'm getting a blog ready and assembling the social media presence with all that jazz... promotion, promotion, promotion. I plan to be a whore on that front. I write everything but do sci-fi the best (most commercial), so I'm hoping to blast out a few more books in a relatively short amount to time and build up a product base to capture multiple sales from any readers I can hook.

    I have no trouble losing money to do this--reinvest, reinvest, reinvest--the idea being that somewhere down the road I can write that "smoker" that will put me over the top. Or at least assemble enough readers to have a modestly successful self-pub career if that's the way things break. I'm cool with it either way. I'm going to do my thing regardless. My writing journey has gone between "fuck you, pay me" to Zen to back so many times that I'm done chasing expectations. Write for yourself, be honest, keep your ego in check, temper your expectations, listen to others, have confidence in yourself, don't be a hater, don't be a dick, don't be jealous of others success/abilities, don't look externally for motivation, don't piss off the writing gods... if you have no expectations beyond the ones you set for yourself you will never be disappointed.

    Having said all that I'd like my money check now. :D Daddy needs a new pair of everything!
     
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  24. Laurin Kelly

    Laurin Kelly Contributor Contributor

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    The hubs and I will be watching this tonight. He produces his band's music so I think it will be even more relevant to him than me. Thanks for the rec!
     
  25. jannert

    jannert Retired Mod Supporter Contributor

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    Just don't give up the day job. :)
     
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