In 2021, Myanmar's military overthrew the civilian government over the results of an election it didn't approve of. This caused national outraged and protesters took to the streets. The military and their aligned police agencies viciously crackdown on the protests, killing and torturing hundreds at minimum (including children). Many self defense militias formed to defend protesters from military and police attacks. With the help of ethnic rebel groups (who trained and armed them), they soon started striking back at security forces, inflicting cut after cut. The self defense groups got brazen enough that they killed soldiers in front of bases to steal their guns, and rammed police officers with their cars and shot them to death in broad daylight. Within a year after the coup and protest crackdowns, Myanmar transcended into a nationwide civil war. Is it likely that the protest crackdowns in Iran will lead to a similar result in Myanmar? If not, what is preventing a Myanmar like escalation in Iran?
While I am not very familiar with all aspects of Myanmar society. I have not heard that they are a theocracy. Iran by contrast is, and the agencies of the state derive their power from that. Historically, the more those in power crack down on protestors, the more the violence escalates. Either could take Stalin's path summed up in his quote," one death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic."
In short Iran already did that in 1979... there wasn't much of a civil war because the mullahs etc were very prepared and cracked down viciously on the other parties like the tudeh (iranian communists), the Shah's loyalists, and so on. Its not likely that there could be another coup in iran since the groups to sustain it aren't present. if you tried to form a self defense militia in iran you'd be arrested before your first meeting Myanmar on the other hand has been a mess for years, significantly exacerbated by the big influx of chinese nationalists after the KMT lost the Chinese civil war, and by the heroin trade and the warlords that created and supports https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Myanmar
