With how many high profile DCEU and a handful of MCU movies flat bombing or were modestly successful at the box office in the past few years, is there a good chance of a decline in the superhero genera? If not, what is the probable path that superhero films will likely take in the foreseeable future?
They've milked that cow until it could give nothing but powder, and they're still working it. Unless there's a seismic shift and they decide to start making better movies again, it's dead (though keep in mind, we live in the age of the zombie). But since Disney took over Marvel nothing good has come out of those studios, like what they did to Star Wars. Though for my money Lucas had already killed it himself in the 90's. The real question is will Disney ever go back to being some pale shadow of what it once was, or will they remain the monstrosity they've become? As for DC, I didn't like anything except the first Wonder Woman and to some extent the first Suicide Squad.
I used to be a MCU and DCEU fanboy back when I was in high school, and loved keeping track of their storylines. Now, with how stale and overly saturated the MCU is, and how much of a mess the DCEU universe have been, I'm just hoping that they'll just die out and have something else take their place. There are just too many superhero movies, and they all share the same plot beats. Although the so called "superhero fatigue" phenomena has been called into question by many outlets, but I know personally have it.
I was hoping after Endgame that the decline would be swift, but then a few short months later, the next Spiderman movie grossed over a billion dollars. And then the next one nearly hit two billion worldwide. This shit ain't going nowhere, I don't think. Plenty of more powder to slap out of those udders. I've been doing my part in not watching any of them, but it's going to take a real collective effort for them to stop churning this stuff out, and I can't imagine that will ever happen. Even if it does, Disney isn't going to stop doing live action remakes of every animation series they've ever produced. Why wouldn't they? With few exceptions, consumers are making these profitable endeavours. At least Disney has recognized the baffling oversaturation of Marvel and Star Wars series and have cut back on development accordingly. It's a positive sign, but we'll see how it goes. I did watch the first two seasons of The Mandalorian and the first of Andor, and they're quite good, so good for them on those. It's not all crap. Just most of it. It really feels like the studios won't stop churning out products based on existing IP anytime soon. Freaking Barbie has also grossed over a billion already. We have a freaking Willy Wonka origin story movie coming out soon. The problem is that most superhero/IP/nostalgia-based projects are considered lower-risk than original screenplays, or even adaptations of very popular novels. There aren't enough executives out there who are willing to risk their careers on rolling the dice on something more interesting than what's in the trough they're all filling for us consumers to slop up.
I remember reading that executive paranoia was the undoing of the DCEU universe. From my very limited understanding, DCEU executives were very fair weather, trend chasing, and paranoid. Apparently, the higher ups often interfered at the slightest whiff of trouble, and course corrected the films into one direction they initially perceived to be safe. However, after deciding that the original direction might've been workable after all, they then petitioned the writers into retracing their steps into the original path, and back again upon having third and forth thoughts at the last possible second. All these behind the scenes changes and squabbles ballooned up production costs, completely disjointed the films' timelines, and gave many of the movies very contradicting tones.
That does ring true, and it's very amusingly ironic. I have to wonder how the DCEU might have existed were it not preceded by the exceptionally successful MCU.
They tried starting with Ryan Reynolds Green Lantern in the very early years of the MCU, and that crashed and burned pretty bad. When I watched it, it felt dry, dull, and a completely nothing movie. Could see why it bombed as hard as it did. The DC movie universe only got its legs with Man of Steel's success. I could be very wrong, but I think Warner Brothers always vaguely considered some crossover plans, but they only put those in motion when the MCU was a smash hit. In a world where the MCU failed to materialize, I think Warner Brothers would've simply sticked to rebooting the same core superheroes every decade or so, like they had been doing with Tim Burton's Batman and Christopher Nolan's Dark Knight.
Funny enough, the DCEU is probably one of the more successful shared universe. Universal tried its own MCU copycat in the form of their classical monsters reboots. They even announced probably over a dozen movie plans before they even released their first film, and had to scrap their universe when that ended up being a financial failure. Two of the planed movies ended up being remade into entirely different projects. The only other cinematic universe in good standing is the Godzilla and Kong "Monsterverse." Even then, they took an extremely different approach then the MCU and DCEU. They stuck to 3 core movie sequels after the success of the 2014 Godzilla movie for several years, and only branched out when the 2020 Godzilla vs Kong proved to be a internet sensation. Even then, only one cinematic sequel and two tv shows are publicly known, and they're not spamming out a dozen movie and tv show projects at once.
I think it will have a long taper. This is the point where the more discerning consumer jumps ship, but there are plenty of domestic and international folks still looking forward to a flashy movie with lots of special effects, and projects are planned to 2027 and beyond. Theaters are also recovering from the long C nap, which will show revenue coming back rather than dropping off. You'd think execs with fates of money on their hands will start cancelling left and right when interest wanes, and they often do, but other times holy Rudd they've made 3 Ant Man movies.
