1. Lucy E.
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    Lucy E. Contributing Member

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    What's the likelihood?

    Discussion in 'The Lounge' started by Lucy E., Oct 19, 2008.

    So me and my best mate were having the BIGGEST argument EVER today (okay, so not the biggest ever, but it was fairly big) about the likelihood of our favourite singer being with the girl he's apparently with atm in two years. I want to settle this once and for all...

    Okay, so this person is 13, almost 14, and the girl he's apparently with is 15. He lives in New York and she lives in L.A. but they frequently go back and forth from NYC to L.A. and vice versa...so, on a scale of 1 to 100, 1 being the least likely and 100 the most likely, what is the likelihood of them still being together in 2 years?

    And on the same scale, what is the likelihood of them getting married?

    Hope that made sense. Please tell me if it didn't. :p
     
  2. mammamaia
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    mammamaia nit-picker-in-chief Contributor

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    i'd say a guaranteed -0- to both!

    [unless, of course, she gets pregnant and for some insane reason, their parents make them get married...if, that is, they have parents, which seems doubtful from what you say is their current life style... in which case, their managers may have them 'do the deed' for maximum publicity points... and, in either of those cases, i'd still say chances of them being together for 2 years would be zip!]
     
  3. Scattercat
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    Scattercat Active Member

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    Young teenagers in the entertainment industry involved in a long-distance relationship?

    Does your scale have negative numbers? Hell, I'm surprised they haven't broken up since you posted about it...
     
  4. Banzai
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    Banzai One-time Mod, but on the road to recovery Contributor

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    Nobody marries their first girlfriend. Baring some pregnancy related mishap, as Maia mentioned (and to be honest, even that isn't the case predominantly nowadays). In short, I'd have to say not a hope in hell. And which side of the argument were you on?
     
  5. Nilfiry
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    Nilfiry Contributing Member

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    There are limitless possibilities in life with no absolutes (exceptions, or at least, not without a paradox of some sort); therefore, this cannot be seriously and accurately judged, especially since I know nothing about those two so.............

    45/100 after 2 years, and 9/100 for getting married.

    (Yes, 9 is my favorite number.)
     
  6. Palimpsest
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    Palimpsest Senior Member

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    For staying together, the simultaneous equation follows: the difference in ages in which they began the relationship, to the exponent of how long they've lasted in years (2) divided by the average timespan that a modern mid-teen's hormonal cycle will run their course (0.249 years, from what I remember of a documentary that I can't even recall the title of.) Since you didn't mention specific names, I won't factor the spikes in relationship stressors and reinforcers (the quantified stress of their respective gigs, the pressure they may feel from fans and agents to stay together, distance versus how often and for how long they stay in contact, temperament compatibility index...) So, let's go straight to multiplying the inverse by the given scale of 1/100

    678.714 - 578.313= 100.400
    1/ 100.400 x 1 / 100 = 1 / 10040
    That is, 1 in 10040; 0.009960 in 100
    Let's round that up to 0.01 in 100 chances of lasting this long. To last two more years would simply change the original exponential variable to 4 instead of 2. That's 1 in 31425.70; 0.003182 or 0.003 in 100

    ... I'm not bored enough to make up a whole other formula for marriage, but I'm guessing it gets less likely. ;)
     
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  7. soujiroseta
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    soujiroseta Senior Member Contributor

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    :confused:..........??????????...........I agree:D
     
  8. Eoz Eanj
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    Eoz Eanj Contributing Member Contributor

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    yeah, it's not gonna happen

    I'm still laughing at the fact my friend, who is 18, is marrying her boyfriend of ten months, whom is also 18.
     
  9. Lemex
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    Lemex That's Lord Lemex to you. Contributor

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    Not totally true.
    I know of one or two people who did marry their first girlfriend.
     
  10. Lucy E.
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    Lucy E. Contributing Member

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    Thanks for the responses guys. :) I'd have replied earlier but my comp is playing up and I'm lucky if I can get on here for two minutes.

    The people are Nat Wolff (himself, 'The Naked Brothers Band') and Miranda Cosgrove (Megan Parker, 'Drake & Josh', and Carly, 'iCarly').
     
  11. lordofhats
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    lordofhats Contributing Member

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    ftw dude. ftw :cool:.
     
  12. Banzai
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    Banzai One-time Mod, but on the road to recovery Contributor

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    Exception that proves the rule ;)

    Kinda figured that :p
     
  13. Lucy E.
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    Lucy E. Contributing Member

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    Understandably, Matt. :D

    I was on the 'not a hope in hell besides the teensiest, tiniest little fraction of one' side. :p
     
  14. FantasyWitch
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    FantasyWitch Contributing Member

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    zilch.

    what a stupid argument :p
     
  15. Lucy E.
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    Lucy E. Contributing Member

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    Meh, we argue over stupid things all the time...believe it or not, today we almost burst each others' eardrums arguing over whether the name 'Nathaniel' looked better spelt 'Nathaniel' or 'Nathanial'. LOL. :p
     
  16. Banzai
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    Banzai One-time Mod, but on the road to recovery Contributor

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    The first way. If it's spelt the second way, it'd be pronounced "nathan-eye-al".
     
  17. Lucy E.
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    Lucy E. Contributing Member

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    You can actually spell it either way and it sounds the same. (I have a friend who spells it the second way).

    I think the first looks better though.
     
  18. Frost
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    Frost Contributing Member

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    I know of at least four people who married their first love. It still happens.

    Still, I suppose first love and first girlfriend are different. Sorry.
     
  19. Eoz Eanj
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    Eoz Eanj Contributing Member Contributor

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    yeah

    and then there's always what you consider a girlfriend/boyfriend

    if it's just whom you decide to date, then I've had three

    which is just... lol considering my age
     

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