Didn't really want to start as thread as my attendance in this part of the forum is somewhat irregular. But I couldn't see one already about it. If you havn't figured it out by now I'd like to talk about Iran capturing 15 bristish sailors/marines and holding them prisioner. Heres the BBC's version for those intrested. Personally it seems to me that Iran is acting a lot like a terrorist organisation more than a country, taking hostages and releasing confessions, even having one of the soldiers write to the UK goverment saying they should remove troops from Iraq. Who do they think they're kidding? The UK goverment doesn't seem to be putting down much of a hard line about it, nor admitted guilt aplogies and moved on (not so popular but if thats the case then so be it). It seems they're being a bit wishy washy with all the wait and see mentality. I reckon that had they been US marines then there would be M1Abrams rolling all over the Iranian countrside about now, heavy handed maybe but definatly not taking no crap.
I think in about 40 hours we're going to see an escalation, or Blair is going to roll over and die. Now for my exact take on things. Whoever was the captain of the British ship in the area should be demoted. He should not have called Britain and asked the bureaucrats what he was suppose to do as the Iranians were seizing the sailors. If he had moved into the area and politely told the Iranians to back off. It may cause a war, but more likely the Iranians would have backed off. The captain was negligent. Blair was right in initially trying to work things out diplomatically. His government came up with an elegant way for everyone to back off without any shame. Promising to "In the future, ask for Iranian permission to enter Iranian waters" would allow Iran to say it stood up to Britain and won. Britain wouldn't have apologized or admitted to anything, and the sailors would be returned home. No one wins big, but no one really loses either. Unfortunately Iran wants to play hard ball. Were Blair screwed up was letting it go too long. He should have waited one week and then said that Iran has 48 hours to "conclude a deal". Its now been nearly 2 weeks. Thats way to long in the current political climate. So Argentina is now calling for the hand over of the Falkland Islands, and Iran looks like its winning the current round. Not good for Britain. This situation has also shown two very important things for people willing to pay attention. First the UN is useless. Britain was following UN orders when the sailors were captured. Ships entering and exiting Iran are to be searched under UN sanctions. So why isn't the UN demanding the return of the sailors? Russia and China kept the UN from issuing a harsh warning to Iran. Instead the UN issued a two sentence letter chastising Iran for its actions. These sailors wouldn't have been their if the UN had not voted on sanctioning Iran. And the best it can do is say its minorly displeased with Iran. Why doesn't the UN support countries that are supporting it? Second, the European Union is only interested in making a buck. Germany and France the leading states in the EU, make up 40% of Irans market. Britain asked as an EU member for support in getting its sailors back. The EU following Germany and Frances lead gave moral support but refused to consider sanctions of any kind. Iran is suffering 20% inflation, its rationing oil, its unemployment rate is in the double digits, and its GDP is dropping. If the EU merely threatened sanctions against Iran, the pressure would in all likelihood force Iran to hand over the sailors. Instead the EU refused to support it's fellow member. There is already a sizable number of British who don't support the EU. This could all too likely be the breaking point. Now Iran states that the British were in Iranian waters. Yet the first set of co-ordinates they came out with were one mile within Iraqi waters. Three days later they came out with a second set of co-ordinates. These waters are in dispute, but the British co-ordinates and the first Iranian ones show that they were in waters generally considered to be Iraqi. So by seizing the sailors the Iranians invaded another country and illegally captured soldiers. This is an act of war. If the Iranians don't relent, the British and the Americans, should treat it as such. Blockade the Iranian ports. Make sure not a single drop of crude oil leaves Iran by water, and not a drop of gasoline enters Iran. Iran has a single old refinery, they have to import most of their gas. Within a month, Iran will be virtually out of gas. Not a single shot should be fired unless the Iranians do it first. Just lock it down, and wait for the Iranians to cry uncle. That would be the best way to show the world that Britain should not be messed with.
Newt Gingrich has an interesting little speech about how to deal with the Iranians. Basically blockade with a little bit extra. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEsP9NdCzhc
Covertly destroy the only oil refinery in Iran, blockade Iran. Force them to walk inside a month. Laugh as they try to make nukes in the dark. As soon as they stop being stupid they can drive again. The way he says it is hilarious.
Regardless, gas is even higher because of this. If this means war, the US will have to back the brits, as will many other countries. The blockade thing seems a good idea if you ask me.
Well Bush has come out in full support of Britain. As has Canada. I'm not sure where Australia stands, but considering its past decisions, I'm certain it would side with Britain. Throw in the minor Eastern European countries that supported the US in Iraq, and a handful of others, and it doesn't look to shabby. The US would do most of the heavy lifting with support from Britain. Canada and Australia with our smaller military would most likely just act as minor support in a general blockade. The others would be moral support. It will be interesting though.
Well the Australian government basically does what ever the US government does and what they tell Australia to do. But I dare say that Australia would back the Brits anyways.
I could see the United States backing Great Britain if the UK actually threatened action. The only thing is, I'm not sure whether that's going to happen; politically, the US certainly isn't popular overseas, and I think the majority of the countries in the United Nations would be fine with seeing the USA and the UK embarrass themselves. I don't mean that telling Iran to stick it would be embarassing in and of itself; I think that some politicians would spin it that way. I don't know how the Labour party would react; I know a few Democrats in the United States would call it "shameful." That isn't a criticism of Democrats in general, just an observation that Sen. Clinton, among others, would work hard to garner dissent for any military actions or proposals. I do note that technically the US could shoot every person in Guantanamo under the Geneva Conventions. (They aren't prisoners of war, who have to be a) in a military organization, b) have uniforms or distinguishing clothing of some kind, and c) can't hide among civilians. A case in Germany settled that.) Instead the US has put them into the equivalent of a maximum-security prison, and has actually listened to the prisoners when they complain about things like having men guarded by female guards, which offends them. By contrast, Iran has taken British soldiers prisoner, without cause, without provocation, and has said that it will try them as spies. I dunno about you, but I'd call that slightly against the Geneva conventions. Note that the above may be simply ignored for as long as any given politician finds it beneficial. As for my own view: I think the United Nations is great for social aid - combating malaria, feeding the poor, educating children in third world countries - but terrible for politics. Count them out as a useful political player in whatever develops. The European Union may be too involved in nice ideas to have any real impact on reality. But I do have great faith in the potential of the European countries acting independently, and I think the USA could do great things if the politicians stopped bickering the way they do. Eh, a bit long. But as accurate as I can make it, me being a fellow mortal and all. G'day folks.
Most definately. It is great that it has ONCE AGAIN been AVOIDED but how much longer until it can't be avoided anymore???????
I'm glad the sailors are coming home. But I have to wonder if Iran will try this again. If it does, the British and the Americans will have to put up a stronger front immediately.
I'm glad they're coming home. You're all going to have to feel sorry for us brits now because all we're going to hear now is just how great the government was in getting them released. I'm not a Tony Blair fan, does it show? Has anybody else noticed how his name sounds like someone throwing up?
Don't get me going on politics. I'm just glad this episode is over so we can get back to boring news.
I think the next British election is going to be interesting. This episode should give the Independence Party a boost.
+I just hope Blairs labour Mod don't get into power again. But people are stupid and will proberly let them serve another 4 years.
I don't know Banzai. Admittedly I don't know much about British politics, but from what I've read, other than possible connections to racist organizations, the Independence Party doesn't seem that bad. Got any links you could send me, so I can check it out some more?
