I'm writing my first book, what are the odds of it being successful?

Plus, just because you write for the enjoyment of others doesn't mean the writer doesn't gain pleasure, satisfaction, or take pride in writing whatever it is. Most real writers I've known, even the most artful ones, write to communicate something because the joy of communicating (by definition, a two-way street) is at least part of what drives them to write.

 

Yes, I've put that slightly too literally. I mean that those unpublished writers who concentrate too much on a business approach tend to forget what I believe to be the more important aspects - like good writing. You don't run before you can walk and if you start out with the sole intention of being published as the objective you may well end up very disappointed. I didn't say it was impossible if that was in response to what I said?

 

No not really in response to what you said. More in response to the general attitude around here of "You will only succeed if you write for yourself and nobody else."
I think there is considerable talent around here and with the effort alot of these people could find themselves published and maybe even successful.
Sorry for the misunderstanding!

 

No need to be sorry Destin. I think there's a lot of merit in what you're saying too. Writing for yourself, however, is a funny one because if there's no audience, then what's it for?

I think what makes it yours is different to writing for yourself.

 

i don't see that as a general consensus... at least not among the seasoned writers... i'd have to see a poll validating that claim, to believe it, as it's certainly not true... to succeed as a writer [as in 'make a living from it'], one must write for one's target market, as well as [maybe even more than] for oneself...

 

I've never quite understood this division amongst us--writing for yourself vs. writing for a market. I think it's probably just a commucation failure.

I always write for others. Even if I ultimately scrap a piece and no one ever sees it, I wrote it with the same goal I always have in mind--to affect other people with my words. That is what defines the art of writing, for me, what makes it an art, and how I measure my progress. How much of an impact do I make? What is the impression I give? To write for a market is to maximise those aspects of writing that I consider critical.

I write for myself in that I love the written word, and that is why I do it in the first place. But what I write and how I write it will always be influenced by my anticipation of its reception.

When you split up a marathon run-on into something more readable, you're writing for a market--those who don't want to struggle through lousy grammar. The rest isn't much different.

As to the original question, assuming the OP refers to monetary success, the odds are obviously slim. You can maximise your chances by maximising your ability to reach your anticipated readership, grab 'em and hold 'em. And there are infinite ways to improve one's writing to that end. But unless you really do write for yourself--as in private writing you'll never allow anyone to see--I'm not sure how else you could be said to improve. . .

That's ultimately why even successful crap (my opinion) like Twilight is good in some way--something in it worked for a certain market.

Maybe it all just goes back to hobbyist vs. aspiring professional.

 

I expect it may just be the same vocal few that keep chirping it out. I was probably out of line saying that it was a "General attitude," more of a vibe that keeps coming across to me.

Could be my own misinterpretation as well.

 

By writing for yourself, you should hopefully be writing for someone else as well. I mean, you want to read what it is you're writing, right? If you do, then chances are good that other people will as well. How many? That's the million-dollar (or potentially the zero-dollar) question, but before you answer, "As many as possible!" consider this: why are you a writer? If you're primarily after fame and fortune--legitimate goals, although you probably chose the wrong field to seek them in--then you'll do best by picking a target audience and writing to them with almost laser-like focus. (Think Twilight.) If, however, your goal is to say something that you believe needs to be said, or to express something that's been swimming deep inside you, waiting to get out, then you should never (under any circumstances!) compromise your vision. You may not reach the big times, but that's not why you're writing anyway. And even if you are writing for that reason, you shouldn't sacrifice your vision for more readers and more dollars. (Pandering to a wider audience at the expense of your story's impact is to essentially whore yourself, and your more astute readers will call you out on it. As they should.)

Moral of the story: Figure out what it is you hope to get out of writing, and then go for it.

 

Often, compromise only becomes necessary when one fails to do both. When I fail at something, I redouble my efforts.

 

I agree with most of what you say phantasmal, except the quoted bit above.

I would want to read what I write because I wrote it. I understand the nuances and the backstory of what I've written. Is it good enough for someone else who doesn't understand my method of thinking? Is it entertaining to someone who isn't already attached to the characters? If I wrote it with only my own vision and my own goals in mind I would have a slim chance of that.

If someone is writing for an audience, they need to remember who their audience is. To begin with, the audience won't give a damn about the characters or the story. And that's only the first hurdle!

 

how does that make any sense?... if they didn't, why would they be buying/reading it?

 

It sounds to me like you're saying that the moment you pick up a book you are immediately attached to the characters?

Isn't it the author's job to develop this relationship with the reader through his characters?

 

Your use of "To begin with" is ambiguous. Maia interprete it to mean "The first thing you should know is..." whereas you apparently meant "At the beginning of the story..."

 

I can see how that would be easy to do.

Good catch!

 

110% - if you want to self-publish it. If you are talking about someone else publishing it, however, that's rare. You have to know how to get ahold of agents and you must fully understand the book writing process before you do anything else.

 

To address the original question of the thread, I don't think you should really think about the odds of success when you embark upon writing a novel. You should do it primarily for the love of writing. If it is the first time then you are still a complete novice and have so much to learn about the craft.

The truly great writers of the past 100 years don't seem like the type of people who started off by weighing the odds.

 

That depends on whether your definition of success is not taking a financial loss.

Although I should point out that 110% is an impossible probability anyway.

 

Wow. I did not expect this thread to get so much attention. This is my only post and it is the most replied topic in this section (neat), I think there has been some solid advice here and I hope others have benefited from this thread as I have. People on opposite ends of the spectrum (and everywhere inbetween) have chimed in with some valid points. Some who have just decided to become writers and others who have been in the business for years. Some who live to write and others who write to live.

What I have drawn from the discussion is this:
First you need to determine why you're writing. Is it Passion? Money? Recognition (Fame)? Career perks (potential freedom of hours and location)? Women (the bras practically take themselves off)? I'm sorry, inappropriate ☺

This is important because this will impact what you write and how you write it. Of these there are two that I feel are the heavyweights (besides women )

Passion. Do you have it? Although it is not vital to success, if you lack it, you have a long and bumpy road ahead of you. Money. Do you have it? How much do you want? Do you have the financial security to write what you want? Money and passion are often tied together. Are you willing to sacrifice your passionate writing and adjust your style and/or topic for financial gain? Someone earlier refereed to the author of Twilight as lucky. Although I agree with this statement, it is for a different reason. I disagree the fact that her success can be attributed to luck. She wrote a book that has not only sold millions, but was also enjoyed by millions. I think that if your book is enjoyed by the majority that read it (even if they are all teenage girls), then there is no way that can be attributed to luck. I do however think she is lucky there happened to be a huge market that matched her passion, and that her targeted market (teenage girls) happen to be the type of people that will spread the popularity of the book via word of mouth or online social sites (facebook, myspace, twitter).

Secondly: Story, Style, and Quality.
These words got thrown around a lot in this thread. I think this was best summed up by Phantasmal Reality.

I agree with Phantasmal Reality, I think the level of quality corresponds with whether or not you have come up with a good story. Also, in addition, but to a lesser extent, your style of writing is important. I think most of us agree that the story is more vital to success, but to what extent there seems to be no general consensus. With that said, the next logical question is how do you know if your story/style is good?

For me, the answer lies in statistics and the law of large numbers. An example of the law of large numbers would be, lets say you flip a coin four times, three times it comes up tails and one time heads. This wouldn't be an accurate portrayal of your chances of getting heads or tails. The law of large numbers states the more times you flip the coin, the closer your results are to the actual chance of the coin landing on either side. I think this can also be applied to deciding whether or not you have written a good story. Lets say you handed out your book to five people and asked each person to rate it between 1-10 based on story and style, and lets say your average was 8 and 6 respectively. The larger the sample the more accurate the representation is. I feel your cumulative scores, in comparison to other novels, would be the best way to tell whether or not you have written a quality book. I do think there are some factors that would be up for debate.

First is weight. Since most of us don’t consider Story and Style equal, when adding your two scores together how much weight would you give story in comparison to style? To me the ratio seems close to 1 to 0.6, or somewhere around there, others would disagree. Secondly, should anything else be added to the equation other than story and style? Another factor might be creativity, or maybe uniqueness. Although I haven’t read Harry Potter or Twilight, I am under the impression they would score highly in this category. Lastly, how important is the sample of readers that score your book? Which sample would be the best gauge of your book’s quality? A sample of accomplished authors? Overall Population? Your target audience? Or maybe even a combination of these, accomplished authors that have written similar books to yours.

Although it would be almost nearly impossible to come up with a sample size large enough to be an accurate representation. It just something to think about when deciding how many people you let read your works. I think the more the merrier in this instance, with as much honest feedback as possible.

 

In this Industry, and it is an industry, there appears to be more arogant 'clanniness' that interferes with the numbers or any law of averages. There are examples of that everywhere, even here.

Those in authority wish to flex their power.

All is subjective. They want you to "freely express yourself", just do so within their rules.

Perseverance is the answer.

Once you do get in...you're in.

The question then will be, do you like who you're in with?

Go for it !

 

I've read this entire thread, and in my opinion, all the comments about the writer-motivation and writing quality miss the mark. The OP already qualified the book as "well written", "interesting", with great cover art and "a grabbing couple of paragraphs" on the back. All the rest is advertising, marketing and author work-ethic. For the average book to achieve any significant measure of success, the author should be the number one salesperson. Book signings, book tours, club visits, blogging, radio talks shows, email marketing lists...it's all about the WORK of marketing.

I have two friends who are presently trying to become established authors. One is an "international" best seller, having sold 20,000 copies of his first and second book, mostly in Europe. His third book has just hit the market. He is constantly traveling to book promotional activities. Another friend-author is just getting started on his marketing. I went into several bookstores that are supposed to be carrying his book...not one on display. You can't sell books if people don't know about them. Which brings me full circle. In getting started, it is the AUTHOR who builds the reputation initially. Sure, if you are Hillary Clinton, Obama or anybody with a little fame (or infamy) you will sell lots of books. But, the average, no-name, first-time author better understand that building a reputation requires several pairs of sneakers...start running!

 

I don't know why no one ever mentions having a nice professional looking website as the basic keys to success. If you self publish this would seem to be one of the first things to take care of after you've finished your book. But time and time again I'll visit a self published book site only to leave in under 30 secs because they all look like garbage. Alot of authors don't even bother with the look of the book cover. It doesn't make any sense.

 

Self-publishing is completely different. It is the new vanity press. The thread topic is about books being accepted by a publishing company, where acceptance is based on the merit of the writing, not the amount of disposable cash you are prepared to sink into it.

There are self-publishers who have recouped their costs, but they are rare.

 

Ok, this is just my opinion, but..... it's hard to say if you'll be successful your first try. Everyone is different, they all have their own styles of writing and each publisher has different requirements for the work they are searching for.

Sure, there are many famous writers that have been published 1st or 2nd times and others on their 15th. Each writer's experience is individualistic.

A lot of people here say chances of succeeding with your first novel are nonexistent, and that most best sellers were lucky. Well, don't take statistics from people who themselves aren't best sellers.

Whether Meyers or Rowling or Radbury, or even King are great writers and worthy of their status is completely irrelevant. Look at King as an example. He writes because he loves it. He has always loved it. What's wrong with trying to make money doing something you love? It helps if you love doing it because you get more practice at it. If he worried about his chances of being published and figured the negative outcome was the most likely one, he wouldn't be where he is today. He even said he would tack his rejection letters on his wall and he kept submitting his work. (He talks about that in his non fiction, On Writing)

Basically, you won't know until you try. If you get rejected, keep pushing forward with it. There are so many opinions out there on what's good and what isn't. There's a fan base for any and every genre of writing. As you submit your work, keeping honing your skill. Don't worry about a prospective audience while you write. Just write. Whoever likes it after you've found a publisher who sees where you're coming from, then awesome for them and you. Those people are now your fans.

Just keep your head up and keep writing. You certainly won't get anywhere if you give up at your first failure.

 

Is it fair to ask, how you know this statement to be true?

Or could it possibly be your opinion based upon your limited knowledge of the total to which you speak?

Just asking.

DQ

 

cog is very careful in what he states to be true, so i'm sure he relied on stats such as those detailed in the following article...

http://howpublishingreallyworks.blogspot.com/2009/11/self-publishing-sales-statistics.html